Institute of Applied Economics (IREA) in Barcelona was founded in 2005, as a research institute in applied economics. Three consolidated research groups make up the institute: AQR, RISK and GiM, and a large number of members are involved in the Institute. IREA focuses on four priority lines of investigation: (i) the quantitative study of regional and urban economic activity and analysis of regional and local economic policies, (ii) study of public economic activity in markets, particularly in the fields of empirical evaluation of privatization, the regulation and competition in the markets of public services using state of industrial economy, (iii) risk analysis in finance and insurance, and (iv) the development of micro and macro econometrics applied for the analysis of economic activity, particularly for quantitative evaluation of public policies.IREA Working Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. For that reason, IREA Working Papers may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of the author. A revised version may be available directly from the author.Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IREA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.

This study aimed to create an individualized analysis model of the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients as a tool for the rapid clinical management of hospitalized patients in order to achieve a resilience of medical resources. This is an observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up. Data were collected from the medical records of 3489 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using RT-qPCR in the period of highest community transmission recorded in Europe to date: February–June 2020. The study was carried out in in two health areas of hospital care in the Madrid region: the central area of the Madrid capital (Hospitales de Madrid del Grupo HM Hospitales (CH-HM), n = 1931) and the metropolitan area of Madrid (Hospital Universitario Príncipe de Asturias (MH-HUPA) n = 1558). By using a regression model, we observed how the different patient variables had unequal importance. Among all the analyzed variables, basal oxygen saturation was found to have the highest relative importance with a value of 20.3%, followed by age (17.7%), lymphocyte/leukocyte ratio (14.4%), CRP value (12.5%), comorbidities (12.5%), and leukocyte count (8.9%). Three levels of risk of ICU/death were established: low-risk level (<5%), medium-risk level (5–20%), and high-risk level (>20%). At the high-risk level, 13% needed ICU admission, 29% died, and 37% had an ICU–death outcome. This predictive model allowed us to individualize the risk for worse outcome for hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 is a new coronavirus characterized by a high infection and transmission capacity. A significant number of patients develop inadequate immune responses that produce massive releases of cytokines that compromise their survival. Soluble factors are clinically and pathologically relevant in COVID-19 survival but remain only partially characterized. The objective of this work was to simultaneously study 62 circulating soluble factors, including innate and adaptive cytokines and their soluble receptors, chemokines and growth and wound-healing/repair factors, in severe COVID-19 patients who survived compared to those with fatal outcomes. Serum samples were obtained from 286 COVID-19 patients and 40 healthy controls. The 62 circulating soluble factors were quantified using a Luminex Milliplex assay. Results. The patients who survived had decreased levels of the following 30 soluble factors of the 62 studied compared to those with fatal outcomes, therefore, these decreases were observed for cytokines and receptors predominantly produced by the innate immune system—IL-1α, IL-1α, IL-18, IL-15, IL-12p40, IL-6, IL-27, IL-1Ra, IL-1RI, IL-1RII, TNFα, TGFα, IL-10, sRAGE, sTNF-RI and sTNF-RII—for the chemokines IL-8, IP-10, MCP-1, MCP-3, MIG and fractalkine; for the growth factors M-CSF and the soluble receptor sIL2Ra; for the cytokines involved in the adaptive immune system IFNγ, IL-17 and sIL-4R; and for the wound-repair factor FGF2. On the other hand, the patients who survived had elevated levels of the soluble factors TNFβ, sCD40L, MDC, RANTES, G-CSF, GM-CSF, EGF, PDGFAA and PDGFABBB compared to those who died. Conclusions. Increases in the circulating levels of the sCD40L cytokine; MDC and RANTES chemokines; the G-CSF and GM-CSF growth factors, EGF, PDGFAA and PDGFABBB; and tissue-repair factors are strongly associated with survival. By contrast, large increases in IL-15, IL-6, IL-18, IL-27 and IL-10; the sIL-1RI, sIL1RII and sTNF-RII receptors; the MCP3, IL-8, MIG and IP-10 chemokines; the M-CSF and sIL-2Ra growth factors; and the wound-healing factor FGF2 favor fatal outcomes of the disease.

Objective: To describe the capacity of a broad spectrum of cytokines and growth factors to predict ICU admission and/or death in patients with severe COVID-19. Design: An observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up. Setting: Hospital Universitario Príncipe de Asturias (HUPA). Participants: 287 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 admitted to our hospital from 24 March to 8 May 2020, followed until 31 August 2020. Main outcome measures: Profiles of immune response (IR) mediators were determined using the Luminex Multiplex technique in hospitalized patients within six days of admission by examining serum levels of 62 soluble molecules classified into the three groups: adaptive IR-related cytokines (n = 19), innate inflammatory IR-related cytokines (n = 27), and growth factors (n = 16). Results: A statistically robust link with ICU admission and/or death was detected for increased serum levels of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-15, soluble (s) RAGE, IP10, MCP3, sIL1RII, IL-8, GCSF and MCSF and IL-10. The greatest prognostic value was observed for the marker combination IL-10, IL-6 and GCSF. Conclusions: When severe COVID-19 progresses to ICU admission and/or death there is a marked increase in serum levels of several cytokines and chemokines, mainly related to the patient’s inflammatory IR. Serum levels of IL-10, IL-6 and GCSF were most prognostic of the outcome measure.