Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequently associated with COVID-19, and the need for kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is considered an indicator of disease severity. This study aimed to develop a prognostic score for predicting the need for KRT in hospitalised COVID-19 patients, and to assess the incidence of AKI and KRT requirement. Methods This study is part of a multicentre cohort, the Brazilian COVID-19 Registry. A total of 5212 adult COVID-19 patients were included between March/2020 and September/2020. Variable selection was performed using generalised additive models (GAM), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used for score derivation. Accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Results The median age of the model-derivation cohort was 59 (IQR 47–70) years, 54.5% were men, 34.3% required ICU admission, 20.9% evolved with AKI, 9.3% required KRT, and 15.1% died during hospitalisation. The temporal validation cohort had similar age, sex, ICU admission, AKI, required KRT distribution and in-hospital mortality. The geographic validation cohort had similar age and sex; however, this cohort had higher rates of ICU admission, AKI, need for KRT and in-hospital mortality. Four predictors of the need for KRT were identified using GAM: need for mechanical ventilation, male sex, higher creatinine at hospital presentation and diabetes. The MMCD score had excellent discrimination in derivation (AUROC 0.929, 95% CI 0.918–0.939) and validation (temporal AUROC 0.927, 95% CI 0.911–0.941; geographic AUROC 0.819, 95% CI 0.792–0.845) cohorts and good overall performance (Brier score: 0.057, 0.056 and 0.122, respectively). The score is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://www.mmcdscore.com/). Conclusions The use of the MMCD score to predict the need for KRT may assist healthcare workers in identifying hospitalised COVID-19 patients who may require more intensive monitoring, and can be useful for resource allocation.

No abstract

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequently associated with COVID–19 and the need for kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is considered an indicator of disease severity. This study aimed to develop a prognostic score for predicting the need for KRT in hospitalized COVID–19 patients. Methods: This study is part of the multicentre cohort, the Brazilian COVID–19 Registry. A total of 5,212 adult COVID–19 patients were included between March/2020 and September/2020. We evaluated four categories of predictor variables: (1) demographic data; (2) comorbidities and conditions at admission; (3) laboratory exams within 24 h; and (4) the need for mechanical ventilation at any time during hospitalization. Variable selection was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used for score derivation. The accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC). Risk groups were proposed based on predicted probabilities: non-high (up to 14.9%), high (15.0 to 49.9%), and very high risk (≥ 50.0%). Results: The median age of the model–derivation cohort was 59 (IQR 47–70) years, 54.5% were men, 34.3% required ICU admission, 20.9% evolved with AKI, 9.3% required KRT, and 15.1% died during hospitalization. The validation cohort had similar age, sex, ICU admission, AKI, required KRT distribution and in–hospital mortality. Thirty–two variables were tested and four important predictors of the need for KRT during hospitalization were identified using GAM: need for mechanical ventilation, male gender, higher creatinine at admission, and diabetes. The MMCD score had excellent discrimination in derivation (AUROC = 0.929; 95% CI 0.918–0.939) and validation (AUROC = 0.927; 95% CI 0.911–0.941) cohorts an good overall performance in both cohorts (Brier score: 0.057 and 0.056, respectively). The score is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://www.mmcdscore.com/). Conclusion: The use of the MMCD score to predict the need for KRT may assist healthcare workers in identifying hospitalized COVID–19 patients who may require more intensive monitoring, and can be useful for resource allocation.