Introduction: In traditional pharmacokinetic (PK) bioequivalence analysis, two one-sided tests (TOST) are conducted on the area under the concentration-time curve and the maximal concentration derived using a non-compartmental approach. When rich sampling is unfeasible, a model-based (MB) approach, using nonlinear mixed effect models (NLMEM) is possible. However, MB-TOST using asymptotic standard errors (SE) presents increased type I error when asymptotic conditions do not hold. Methods : In this work, we propose three alternative calculations of the SE based on i) an adaptation to NLMEM of the correction proposed by Gallant, ii) the a posteriori distribution of the treatment coefficient using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm, and iii) parametric random effects and residual errors bootstrap. We evaluate these approaches by simulations, for two-arms parallel and two-periods two-sequences cross-over design with rich (n=10) and sparse (n=3) sampling under the null and the alternative hypotheses, with MB-TOST.Results: All new approaches correct for the inflation of MB-TOST type I error in PK studies with sparse designs. The approach based on the a posteriori distribution appears to be the best compromise between controlled type I errors and computing times.Conclusion: MB-TOST using non-asymptotic SE controls type I error rate better than when using asymptotic SE estimates for bioequivalence on PK studies with sparse sampling.
Summary The classical approach to analyze pharmacokinetic (PK) data in bioequivalence studies aiming to compare two different formulations is to perform noncompartmental analysis (NCA) followed by two one-sided tests (TOST). In this regard, the PK parameters area under the curve (AUC) and $C_{\max}$ are obtained for both treatment groups and their geometric mean ratios are considered. According to current guidelines by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency, the formulations are declared to be sufficiently similar if the $90\%$ confidence interval for these ratios falls between $0.8$ and $1.25 $. As NCA is not a reliable approach in case of sparse designs, a model-based alternative has already been proposed for the estimation of $\rm AUC$ and $C_{\max}$ using nonlinear mixed effects models. Here we propose another, more powerful test than the TOST and demonstrate its superiority through a simulation study both for NCA and model-based approaches. For products with high variability on PK parameters, this method appears to have closer type I errors to the conventionally accepted significance level of $0.05$, suggesting its potential use in situations where conventional bioequivalence analysis is not applicable.
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