Fault zones in the Upper Jurassic aquifer of the North Alpine Foreland Basin are generally regions with possibly increased hydraulic properties. They are consequently often part of the geothermal exploration concepts in this area and a primary target for the drilling operation. Data from this aquifer, gathered in pump tests, however, show that only four out of 41 successful wells exhibit hydraulic proof for the presence of such a fault zone in terms of a bi-/linear flow regime. Besides technical effects, also the contrast in hydraulic properties itself, between fault zone and surrounding host rock, can prevent the detection of a fault zone in pump test data. This means a certain threshold has to be surpassed until its effects become clearly visible. A simplified realistic numerical model was constructed and calibrated with pressure data from an exploration site in the south of Munich. This model was then used to observe the presence of linear and bilinear flows in dependence on the Malm aquifers parameter space. Sampling the possible hydraulic property combinations with the help of an HPC (high-performance computing) cluster and automating the detection of the corresponding main flow type allowed to quantify the areas in parameter space where the fault zone-related flow regimes of interest are present. Through the investigation of more than 30,000 combinations between fault zone permeability, matrix permeability, fault zone storage, matrix storage and fault zone thickness, it was found that, in the parameter space of the Malm aquifer, a bilinear flow can be observed for the first time only if the matrix permeability is lower than 2.0 × 10 −13 m 2 , and a linear flow for matrix permeability values below 6.0 × 10 −14 m 2. Additionally, it was shown that fault zones, which have better hydraulic properties than the surrounding matrix, can indeed be hidden in pumping tests due to the parameter setting.

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Geothermal energy applications are seen as one key element for a successful heat transition in Bavaria. But there are still some barriers for a further development. To minimize these barriers the joint research project Geothermal Alliance Bavaria (GAB) is established. One important issue to foster the implementations of geothermal projects is the assessment of geothermal load prediction in the South German Molasse Basin (SGMB). This includes, aside from a reservoir temperature prognosis, an accurate description of the hydraulic properties of the Upper Jurassic Malm reservoir. Hydraulic test analyses are conducted in the framework of the GAB to obtain specific information about the hydraulic productivity of the reservoir. Results from these analyses show a decrease of rock permeability in southern direction within the reservoir. Because the spatial distribution of hydraulic test data is limited, the porosity of the reservoir is assessed by borehole core tests and logs interpretation. A trend of matrix porosity decrease with depth is recognised and correlates with the hydraulic test results. Based on these findings and combined with further information the Upper Jurassic reservoir could be classified in separated zones of similar production rates, which can now be used for a thermal output prognosis for the Bavarian part of the SGMB. To spatially expand these prognoses more data must be investigated in the next research phase of the GAB.

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