International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 13 Fair Value Measurement lays down two methods to adjust Expected Present Value (EPV) for risk. According to Method 1, expected cash inflows should be risk-adjusted by subtracting a risk-premium and discounted at the market risk-free rate, see (IFRS 13, B25). In contrast according to Method 2, expected cash inflows should be discounted at the risk-free rate augmented by a risk-premium addendum, see (IFRS 13, B26). Standard IFRS 13, B29 leaves the freedom to choose between the two methods. The aim of this note is to identify the relationship between the Risk-Adjusted EPVs rolled out from Method 1 and Method 2. First we introduce a theoretical solution to risk-adjustments compliant with the Standard IFRS 13, B29. Then, we set up a user-oriented proxy to connect the risk-premium present in Method 1 with the risk-adjusted rate present in Method 2. This proxy spots light on the key role played by the Macaulay Duration of expected inflows, rather than that of the lifetime of the project. As a consequence, projects expiring at the same redemption date and endowed with the same EPV and/or the same total inflow may differ considerably in risk-adjustments, due to different Macaulay Durations. A user-oriented method to properly to fast evaluate risk-adjustments for multi-cash inflow projects is provided. Sensitivity analysis of the impact of the Macaulay Duration on Risk-Adjusted EPV is also rolled out through numerical examples.
In this paper we investigate the behavior of the market around dividend payment dates. Our empirical analysis, based on a Bayesian approach applied to Italian stock data, confirms the presence of abnormal returns at the ex-dividend date, as already documented in the literature for other markets. Calibrating a suitable model introduced in [1] to take care of the additional randomness pertubing the market around dividend payment dates, we investigate the effects on the derivative evaluation. Looking at the NoArbitrage prices of American call options written on some Italian dividend-paying stock and comparing them with the marketed prices, we conclude that the effect of this additional randomness can be neglected.
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