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Does more support in childcare increase the mother's desire to have a second child? An answer to this question was sought in Italy, a country characterised by very low fertility. The paper explores the existence of effects on individual decisions at different levels, in the hypotheses that fertility preferences are not only related to women's individual traits, but also affected by the interactions with the surrounding social network and by the opportunity/constraints of the context of residence. Data from the ISTAT Survey on Births completed in 2005 were used to study the impact of different childcare arrangements on expected fertility of women who had a child between 18 to 21 months prior to their interviews (N = 5145). A multilevel strategy of analysis was adopted to assess the existence of a contextual effect beyond the observed individual effects. Working women in the sample have the same fertility intentions as non‐working women, but these expectations are conditioned by several factors. A higher paternal commitment in childbirth, childcare and household chores is positively associated to the intention of a second child; help from the informal family network shows a significant positive effect on women's childbearing intentions. Finally, and although the empirical analysis here performed does not provide clear evidence of autonomous contextual effects, it is argued that individual behaviours are connected to the context in which they belong and researchers' efforts should be directed towards its correct specification, transcending the standard geographical focus of social contextualisation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Geographical variations in fertility have been observed within several countries in Northern Europe, with higher fertility in rural areas, smaller settlements and city suburbs. However, the processes underlying such fertility variations across residential contexts are not well understood. This paper contributes to the on-going debate by looking at local variations in fertility in Britain. It aims to disentangle the relative contribution of a number of factors, including the socio-economic characteristics of individuals, housing conditions, patterns of residential relocation and lastly, contextual factors stricto sensu. In addition, it seeks to identify those aspects of reproductive behaviour which are more likely to be associated with the observed spatial differences, and to distinguish between those that may be influenced by local context and those that respond to social influences at different scales. The focus is on local fertility contexts which, we argue, have the potential to influence the fertility behaviour of individuals through processes of social learning. Individual level data from the British Household Panel Survey and methods of event history analysis are used to explore women's transitions to second and third order births in Britain in the early 21st century. Our findings indicate that individual reproductive life paths respond to a variety of social processes acting at various scales, and that these influences vary by birth order. Most interestingly, local fertility contexts influence transition to first birth but not transition to higher order births, which are mainly associated with individual characteristics of women and their partners. Dominant spacing effects, however, suggest that local contexts have an indirect impact on second and third births through age at the onset of childbearing. The study demonstrates the importance of considering social interaction theories, and their extension to scale-sensitive spatial contexts in which these interactions take place, when analysing geographical variations in fertility. Future research seeking to explain subnational fertility variations must recognize the importance of developing theoretical understandings to inform empirical work.

Pathways to childlessness may differ not only between individuals but also at the population level. This paper investigates differences in childlessness by comparing two countries—Britain and Italy—where levels of childlessness are high in comparison with many other European countries, but which have distinct fertility trajectories and family regimes. Using data from two large, representative national samples of women and men of reproductive age in a co-residential partnership, it presents a rich analysis of the characteristics associated with intended childlessness, net of the aspects associated with being childless at interview. Although childlessness intentions are generally comparable between men and women of the same age, results show a link between socio-economic disadvantage and childlessness for British men as well as the importance of men’s employment for childbearing decisions in Italy. These findings support the view that pathways into childlessness are gendered and highlight the importance of partnership context in the understanding of fertility intentions. Then, the level of childlessness at interview is comparable across the two countries. However, a higher proportion of respondents in Italy is only provisionally childless, whereas a larger proportion of British respondents intends to remain childless. Framing these differences in fertility intentions within the wider context of family and fertility regimes allows insight into the extent to which observed levels of lifetime childlessness at the population level might result from a specific combination of intended childlessness, postponed decisions leading to involuntary childlessness, or constraints affecting abilities to achieve intentions at the individual level.