The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) became operational in August 2016, producing the first ever real-time, distributed, continuous set of hydrologic forecasts over the continental United States (CONUS). This project uses integrated hydrometeorological assessment methods to investigate the utility of the NWM to predict catastrophic flooding associated with an extreme rainfall event that occurred in Ellicott City, Maryland, on 27–28 May 2018. Short-range forecasts (0–18-h lead time) from the NWM version 1.2 are explored, focusing on the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) forcing from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model and the corresponding NWM streamflow forecast. A comprehensive assessment of multiscale hydrometeorological processes are considered using a combination of object-based, grid-based, and hydrologic point-based verification. Results highlight the benefits and risks of using a distributed hydrologic modeling tool such as the NWM to connect operational CONUS-scale atmospheric forcings to local impact predictions. For the Ellicott City event, reasonably skillful QPF in several HRRR model forecast cycles produced NWM streamflow forecasts in the small Ellicott City basin that were suggestive of flash flood potential. In larger surrounding basins, the NWM streamflow response was more complex, and errors were found to be governed by both hydrologic process representation, as well as forcing errors. The integrated, hydrometeorological multiscale analysis method demonstrated here guides both research and ongoing model development efforts, along with providing user education and engagement to ultimately engender improved flash flood prediction.

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Estimating the risk of flood-generating precipitation events in high-mountain regions with complex orography is a difficult but crucial task. Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) at fine resolution are an essential ingredient to address this issue. Along these lines, the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, operated at 3.5-km grid spacing, to reproduce the extreme meteorological event that led to the 2010 Pakistan flood and produced heavy monsoonal rain in the Indus basin is explored. The model results are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall estimates, the available ground measurements, and radar observations from the CloudSat mission. In particular, the sensitivity of the WRF simulations to the use of different convective closures (explicit and Kain–Fritsch) and microphysical parameterizations (WRF single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme and Thompson) is analyzed. The impact of using different initial conditions, associated with a different initialization day, is also examined. The use of the new-generation Distributed Simulation and Stimulation System NASA Earth Observing System Simulators Suite radar simulator allows a more accurate and extensive representation of the mesoscale processes and of the interaction with the complex orography. The results reported here indicate that the quality of the large-scale initial conditions is a prominent factor affecting the possibility of retrieving a realistic representation of this event when using a nonhydrostatic regional model.