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Weather forecasting is a critical aspect for optimizing aerodrome operations. It allows ensuring on-ground and en-route safe and efficient air traffic management. Being a continuous and mandatory operation for aerodrome systems, it routinely produces large amounts of data. This paper suggests a customized performance-based analysis of weather forecasts accuracy in line with ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) standards. The analysis is instantiated into operational settings of a European Weather Service Provider (WSP), and its implications for operations of an Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP), by means of exemplary data intelligence reports including accuracy indicators. The analysis is meant to support decision makers in managing aerodrome weather forecasting gaining knowledge from past operations.

The interaction between the physical world and information technologies creates advantages and novel emerging threats. Cyber-physical systems (CPSs) result vulnerable to cyber-related disruptive scenarios, and, for some critical systems, cyber failures may have fallouts on society and environment. Traditional risk analysis in no more sufficient to deal with these problems. New techniques are gaining increasing consensus, especially those based on systems theory. In this context, the System-Theoretic Process Analysis for Security (STPA-Sec) extends the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modelling and Processes (STAMP) model considering cyber threats, and identifying unsafe and unsecure controls throughout a cyber socio-technical system. Despite its large usage as a descriptive tool, there is still limited use of STPA-Sec in (semi-)quantitative terms. This article presents System-Theoretic Process Analysis for Security with Simulations (STPA-Sec/S), a methodological interface between STPA-Sec and quantitative resilience assessment based on simulation models. The methodology is instantiated in a demonstrative case study of a water treatment plant, and its critical CPSs which may impact both community health, and environment. The obtained results show how STPA-Sec/S foster systems understanding, allow a systematic identification of its major criticalities, and the respective quantification.INDEX TERMS Cyber security, cyber-socio-technical systems, hazard analysis, industrial systems engineering, resilience management, systems modeling.Open Access funding provided by 'Università degli Studi di Roma ''La Sapienza''' within the CRUI CARE Agreement

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