ASKS (3) has studied the responses of children nine to twelve years of age to the question whether they believed that they would draw a "picture card" or a blank card from shuffled packs containing different known numbers of the two kinds of cards When drawing a picture card was "desirable" (gained a point toward a game), the stated expectaticms of drawing such a card occurred with a much greater relative frwjuency than when the same event was "undesirable" (lost a point frwn the game) This was true over a range of probabilities frcan 9 to .1 for the event The present experiment was designed (i) to determine whether the desirability of an event m a situation like that of Marks would affect adults' stated expectations of its occurrence, (2) to obtain data in a neutral condition m which the variable of desirability was not introduced, and {3) if the Marks effect appeared, to test an hypothesis ccMiceming the relation of this effect to the degree of confidence with which the expectations were stated. This h3rpothesis supposed that the response yes to the question, "Do you think you will draw a marked card-*" has a different meaning if it is made because a marked card is desirable than if it is made in spite of the undesirability of a mariced card Thus, in the former case it might mean s

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