Little is known about the fitness and virulence consequences of single-nucleotide substitutions in RNA viral genomes, and most information comes from the analysis of nonrandom sets of mutations with strong phenotypic effect or which have been assessed in vitro, with their relevance in vivo being unclear. Here we used site-directed mutagenesis to create a collection of 66 clones of Tobacco etch potyvirus, each carrying a different, randomly chosen, single-nucleotide substitution. Competition experiments between each mutant and the ancestral nonmutated clone were performed in planta to quantitatively assess the relative fitness of each mutant genotype. Among all mutations, 40.9% were lethal, and among the viable ones, 36.4% were significantly deleterious and 22.7% neutral. Not a single case of beneficial effects was observed within the level of resolution of our measures. On average, the fitness of a genotype carrying a deleterious but viable mutation was 49% smaller than that for its unmutated progenitor. Deleterious mutational effects conformed to a beta probability distribution. The virulence of a subset of viable mutants was assessed as the reduction in the number of viable seeds produced by infected plants. Mutational effects on virulence ranged between 17% reductions and 24.4% increases. Interestingly, the only mutations showing a significant effect on virulence were hypervirulent. Competitive fitness and virulence were uncorrelated traits.

Over the years, agriculture across the world has been compromised by a succession of devastating epidemics caused by new viruses that spilled over from reservoir species or by new variants of classic viruses that acquired new virulence factors or changed their epidemiological patterns. Viral emergence is usually associated with ecological change or with agronomical practices bringing together reservoirs and crop species. The complete picture is, however, much more complex, and results from an evolutionary process in which the main players are ecological factors, viruses' genetic plasticity, and host factors required for virus replication, all mixed with a good measure of stochasticity. The present review puts emergence of plant RNA viruses into the framework of evolutionary genetics, stressing that viral emergence begins with a stochastic process that involves the transmission of a preexisting viral strain into a new host species, followed by adaptation to the new host.

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