Transformers are one of the most important part in a power system and, especially in key-facilities, they should be closely and continuously monitored. In this context, methods based on the dissolved gas ratios allow to associate values of gas concentrations with the occurrence of some faults, such as partial discharges and thermal faults. So, an accurate prediction of oil-dissolved gas concentrations is a valuable tool to monitor the transformer condition and to develop a fault diagnosis system. This study proposes a nonlinear autoregressive neural network model coupled with the discrete wavelet transform for predicting transformer oil-dissolved gas concentrations. The data fitting and accurate prediction ability of the proposed model is evaluated in a real world example, showing better results in relation to current prediction models and common time series techniques.

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Dissolved gas analysis (DGA) is one of the most important methods to analyze fault in power transformers. In general, DGA is applied in monitoring systems based upon an autoregressive model; the current value of a time series is regressed on past values of the same series, as well as present and past values of some exogenous variables. The main difficulty is to decide the order of the autoregressive model; this means determining the number of past values to be used. This study proposes a wavelet-like transform to optimize the order of the variables in a nonlinear autoregressive neural network to predict the in oil dissolved gas concentration (DGC) from sensor data. Daubechies wavelets of different lengths are used to create representations with different time delays of ten DGC, which are then subjected to a procedure based on principal components analysis (PCA) and Pearson’s correlation to find out the order of an autoregressive model. The representations with optimal time delays for each DGC are applied as input in a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network with backpropagation algorithm to predict the gas at the present and future times. This approach produces better results than choosing the same time delay for all inputs, as usual. The forecasts reached an average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.763%, 1.525%, 1.831%, 2.869%, and 5.069% for C2H2, C2H6, C2H4, CH4, and H2, respectively.

In Brazil, the electric power distributors must buy electricity on auctions one, three and five years ahead. If there is inefficiency in the contracting of electric energy, the chamber of Commercialization of Electric Energy, which enables the commercialization, can apply penalties. Thus, this paper proposes a computational approach to forecasting electricity by the class of the consumer using a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network with a backpropagation algorithm and a prediction using time series techniques through the Bayesian and Akaike selection criteria. The forecast of electricity consumption can serve as support in the purchase of electricity in auctions in the regulated contracting environment and in the process of settlement of differences and for energy management, customer service, and distributor billing. The results show that a multilayer network with a backpropagation algorithm is able to learn the behavior of the data that influences the electric energy consumed by consumption class and can be used to follow the evolution in the demand of each class of consumption and, consequently, to help distributors in the process of contracting of electricity, reduce losses like fines, and reduce the costs of the energy distributor.

This work is aimed at demonstrating the advantages that AI can bring to dam management and which parameters and calculations are important to make the simulations more realistic. To this end, a computational approach that combines a Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network (MLP-ANN) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method was developed and tested in simulations of floodgate operation using data collected from one of the biggest sanitation companies in the world. The conducted systematic review and simulations allowed to demonstrate the contributions of this study to the scientific literature and organizational practice, mainly because it shows that the application of the proposed approach can eliminates the need for manual operations in dams, including those aimed at preventing disasters and water wastage.