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BACKGROUND Distal junctional kyphosis (DJK) development after cervical deformity (CD)-corrective surgery is a growing concern for surgeons and patients. Few studies have investigated risk factors that predict the occurrence of DJK. OBJECTIVE To predict DJK development after CD surgery using predictive modeling. METHODS CD criteria was at least one of the following: C2-C7 Coronal/Cobb > 10°, C2-7 sagittal vertical axis (cSVA) > 4 cm, chin-brow vertical angle > 25°. DJK was defined as the development of an angle <−10° from the end of fusion construct to the second distal vertebra, and change in this angle by <−10° from baseline to postoperative. Baseline demographic, clinical, and surgical information were used to predict the occurrence of DJK using generalized linear modeling both as one overall model and as submodels using baseline demographic and clinical predictors or surgical predictors. RESULTS One hundred seventeen CD patients were included. At any postoperative visit up to 1 yr, 23.1% of CD patients developed DJK. DJK was predicted with high accuracy using a combination of baseline demographic, clinical, and surgical factors by the following factors: preoperative neurological deficit, use of transition rod, C2-C7 lordosis (CL)<−12°, T1 slope minus CL > 31°, and cSVA > 54 mm. In the model using only baseline demographic/clinical predictors of DJK, presence of comorbidities, presence of baseline neurological deficit, and high preoperative C2-T3 angle were included in the final model (area under the curve = 87%). The final model using only surgical predictors for DJK included combined approach, posterior upper instrumented vertebrae below C4, use of transition rod, lack of anterior corpectomy, more than 3 posterior osteotomies, and performance of a 3-column osteotomy. CONCLUSION Preoperative assessment and consideration should be given to these factors that are predictive of DJK to mitigate poor outcomes.

Background: The study aimed to characterize trends in incidence, etiology, fracture types, surgical procedures, complications, and concurrent injuries associated with traumatic pediatric cervical fracture using a nationwide database. Methods: The Kids' Inpatient Database (KID) was queried. Trauma cases from 2003 to 2012 were identified, and cervical fracture patients were isolated. Demographics, etiologies, fracture levels, procedures, complications, and concurrent injuries were assessed. The t-tests elucidated significance for continuous variables, and v 2 for categoric values. Logistic regressions identified predictors of spinal cord injury (SCI), surgery, any complication, and mortality. Level of significance was P , .05. Results: A total of 11 196 fracture patients were isolated (age, 16.63 years; male, 65.7%; white, 65.4%; adolescent, 55.4%). Incidence significantly increased since 2003 (2003 vs 2012, 2.39% vs 3.12%, respectively), as did Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI; 2003 vs 2012, 0.2012 vs 0.4408, respectively). Most common etiology was motor vehicle accidents (50.5%). Infants and children frequently fractured at C2 (closed: 43.1%, 32.9%); adolescents and young adults frequently fractured at C7 (closed: 23.9%, 26.5%). Upper cervical SCI was less common (5.8%) than lower cervical SCI (10.9%). Lower cervical unspecified-SCI, anterior cord syndrome, and other specified SCIs significantly decreased since 2003. Complications were common (acute respiratory distress syndrome, 7.8%; anemia, 6.7%; shock, 3.0%; and mortality, 4.2%), with bowel complications, cauda equina, anemia, and shock rates significantly increasing since 2003. Concurrent injuries were common (15.2% ribs; 14.4% skull; 7.1% pelvis) and have significantly increased since 2003. Predictors of SCI included sports injury and CCI. Predictors of surgery included falls, sports injuries, CCI, length of stay, and SCI. CCI, SCIs, and concurrent injuries were predictors of any complication and mortality, all (P , .001). Conclusions: Since 2003, incidence, complications, concurrent injuries, and fusions have increased. CCI, SCI, falls, and sports injuries were significant predictors of surgical intervention. Decreased mortality and SCI rates may indicate improving emergency medical services and management guidelines. Level of Evidence: III Clinical Relevance: Clinicians should be aware of increased case complexity in the onset of added perioperative complications and concurrent injuries. Cervical fractures resultant of sports injuries should be scrutinized for concurrent SCIs.