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The orthodox view is that uncertainty deters investments and, by extension, private capital inflows. Paying specific attention to the volatility of the domestic exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI), and financial development indicators, this study investigates the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on FDI and whether financial development matters in such association. We establish our empirical relationship with a system general methods of moments (GMM) two‐step robust estimator with orthogonal deviations. We found evidence supporting a nonlinear U‐shaped relationship between uncertainty and FDI and that the impact of uncertainty on FDI depends on varying levels of uncertainty. We also document that uncertainty deters FDI flows and that countries with a well‐functioning financial development can transform the adverse impact of volatility on FDI. However, curbing the adverse effect depends on the specific indicator and the threshold value of financial development (financial institutions or financial markets).

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The article examines the interconnections between capital flows, institutions and real sector growth in Africa. We show that capital flows (foreign direct investment, private debt and equity) have no direct favourable impact on the real sector. Initial assessments show that countries with robust institutional frameworks can benefit significantly from capital flows, as institutions moderate the positive impact of capital flows on real sector growth. Our marginal effect analyses show that the impact of private capital on real sector components is dependent on the type of capital, sector and the percentile level on institutions, in some cases, at the 90th percentile. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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