High-resolution hydrodynamic models are a common tool to simulate water dynamics in estuaries. Results from these models are, however, difficult to interpret without the aid of additional parameters to integrate the information. In this paper a methodology to understand the transport patterns in the Tagus Estuary is proposed. It is based on the computation of two renewal time scales: residence time and integrated water fraction. This last parameter is used to build a dependency matrix that gives the integrated influence of each region of the estuary at a selected point. The parameters are computed using a Lagrangian transport model coupled to the hydrodynamic model. Results show that Tagus Estuary has two different types of regions: the central part of the estuary, with low renewal efficiency, and three regions with higher renewal efficiency. Renewal mechanisms are, however, different for each region as shown by the dependency matrix. Comparison of renewal time scales with results from a water-quality model revealed that residence time is not a limiting parameter for primary production in the Tagus Estuary.

The effects of implementing Directive 91/271/EEC of 21 May 1991 (Waste Water Treatment Plan Directive) and Directive 91/676/EEC of 12 December (Nitrates Directive) are analysed in 7 Portuguese estuaries (Minho, Lima, Douro, Mondego, Tagus, Sado and Guadiana) and two coastal lagoons (Ria de Aveiro and Ria Formosa), with a modelling approach. MOHID Water Modelling System was used to perform simulations with three nitrogen load scenarios for each system: a reference scenario, a 50% nitrate removal by agriculture scenario and another with a 100% nutrients removal by waste water treatment plants (WWTP). It is shown that the interaction between hydrodynamic and ecological processes is an important feature to study trophic problems in estuaries. Ecological processes such as primary production only occur inside the system if the residence time of water is high enough to enable organismal activity and if the adequate conditions are found (e.g. light, nutrients, temperature). From the model results it is possible to conclude: (i) in systems with short residence time a reduction in nutrient load will only produce a decrease in nutrient transit and will not affect the system's global ecological status (e.g. Douro Estuary); (ii) in systems with long residence time the effects will range from significant, when primary production is mostly limited by nutrients (e.g. Ria de Aveiro), to non-significant, when primary production in the system is light-limited (e.g. Tagus Estuary).

No abstract

Abstract. The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events.A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area -the Portuguese continental shelf -with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data.Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real-time risk levels can be used in the prioritization of individual ships, geographical areas, strategic tug positioning and implementation of dynamic risk-based vessel traffic monitoring.