Agriculture accounts for approximately 11% of China?s national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Through adoption of region-specific best management practices, Chinese farmers can contribute to emission reduction while maintaining food security for its large population (>1300 Million). This paper presents the outcome of a bottom?up assessment to quantify technical potential of mitigation measures for Chinese agriculture using meta-analysis of data from 240 publications for cropland, 67 publications for grassland and 139 publications for livestock, and provides the reference scenario for the cost analysis of identified mitigation measures. Management options with greatest mitigation potential for rice, or rice-based cropping systems are conservation tillage, controlled irrigation; replacement of urea with ammonium sulphate, nitrogen (N) inhibitor application, reduced N fertilizer application, integrated rice-fish-duck farming and biochar application. A 15% reduction in current average synthetic N fertilizer application for rice in China i.e., 231 kg N ha?1, would result in 12% decrease in direct soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Combined application of chemical and organic fertilizer, conservation tillage, biochar application and reduced N application are possible measures that can reduce overall GHG emissions from upland cropping systems. Conventional fertilizer inputs for greenhouse vegetables are more than 2?8 times the optimal crop nutrient demand. A 20?40% reduction in N fertilizer application to vegetable crops can reduce N2O emissions by 32?121%, while not negatively impacting the yield. One of the most important mitigation measures for agricultural grasslands could be conversion of low yielding cropland, particularly on slopes, to shrub land or grassland, which is also a promising option to decrease soil erosion. In addition, grazing exclusion and reduced grazing intensity can increase SOC sequestration and decrease overall emissions while improving the largely degraded grasslands. For livestock production, where poor quality forage is commonly fed, improving grazing management and diet quality can reduce methane (CH4) emissions by 11% and 5%, on average. Dietary supplements can reduce CH4 emissions further, with lipids (15% reduction) and tannins or saponins (11% reduction) showing the greatest potential. We also suggest the most economically cost-effective mitigation measures, drawing on related work on the construction of marginal abatement cost curves for the sector.authorsversionPeer reviewe

China is now the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases with 7467 million tons (Mt) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) in 2005, with agriculture accounting for 11% of this total. As elsewhere, agricultural emissions mitigation policy in China faces a range of challenges due to the biophysical complexity, the heterogeneity of farming systems, and social-economic barriers. Existing research has contributed to improving our understanding of the technical potential of mitigation measures in this sector (i.e. what works). But for policy purposes it is important to convert these measures into a feasible economic potential, which provides a perspective on whether agricultural emissions reduction measures are low cost relative to mitigation measures and overall potential offered by other sectors of the economy. We develop a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) representing the cost of mitigation measures applicable in addition to business-as-usual agricultural practices. The MACC demonstrates that while the sector can offer a maximum technical mitigation potential of 402 MtCO2e in 2020, of which a reduction of 135 MtCO2e is potentially available at zero or negative cost (i.e. a cost saving), and 176 MtCO2e (approximately 44% of the total) can be abated at a cost below a threshold carbon price of ¥ 100 (approximately €12) per tCO2e. Our findings highlight cost-effectiveness of nitrogen fertilizer and manure best management practices, and animal breeding practices. We outline the assumptions underlying MACC construction and discuss some scientific, socioeconomic and institutional barriers to realizing the indicated levels of mitigation.

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