The EU Biodiversity Strategy (EUBDS) for 2030 aims at regaining biodiversity by strengthening the protection of nature in the European Union. This study models and analyses possible impacts of the EUBDS on the production and trade of forest-based products in the EU and non-EU countries in two alternative scenarios. Implementing EUBDS measures would allow a maximum EU roundwood production of roughly 281 M m3 in 2030 in the intensive and 490 M m3 in the moderate scenario. Since in the reference scenario, the EU roundwood production amounts to 539 M m3 in 2030, this represent a reduction of −48% and −9% in 2030, respectively. Until 2050, the production further decreases and accounts for 42% and 90% of the reference production. Globally, the EU roundwood production deficit is compensated partly (roughly between 50%–60%) by increasing production of roundwood in non-EU countries (e.g., USA, Russia, Canada, China and Brazil) whereas the remaining share of the EU production deficit is no longer produced and consumed worldwide. In the EU, reduced roundwood availability leads to a lower production of wood-based products, although, apparent consumption of wood-based products remains similar. This is mainly caused by significantly lower export volumes of wood-based products and, for some product groups, by significantly increased imports as well. This is partly due to unchanged assumptions regarding income and thus, demand patterns. However, on a global level, decreased production and consumption of wood-based products could lead to a growing use of non-bio-based resources to substitute wood-products. Our study also shows that the magnitude of effects strongly depends on how much the use of forest resources is actually restricted.

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The gravity model of trade is one of the most common approaches in modern econometrics. In its basic form, the model assumes that income and distance between two partners most likely play a major role in the occurrence of trade. Despite the long history of the gravity model and its high, universal explanatory potential, its application for the forest sector is not broad and refers only to the traditional definition of the gravity approach. However, this traditional approach is not able to explain all aspects of trade at a disaggregated sector level. Consequently, the present study aims to close this research gap and reveal influencing factors for the appearance and the intensity of forest product trade by applying the structural gravity approach. This is done via linear and non-linear estimation methods for the forest sector on the whole and for thirteen forest products in detail. Three major results were found: first, the traditional gravity approach overestimates the impact of the overall income on forest sector trade. Second, the appearance of wood market trade is not always influenced by the same factors as the quantity traded. Third, with increasing processing level, determinants of forest product trade seem to be influenced by different factors.

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