Many small island states have developed economies that are strongly dependent on tuna fisheries. Consequently, they are vulnerable to the socio-economic effects of climate change and variability, processes that are known to impact tuna fisheries distribution and productivity. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of climate oscillations on the tuna-dependent economy of Seychelles. Using a multiplier approach, the direct, indirect and induced economic effects of the tuna industry expenditure benefiting the Seychelles' economy declined in 1998 by 58, 26 and 35%, respectively (mean decline: 42%), a year of strong climate oscillation in the western Indian Ocean. Multivariate patterns in tuna purse-seine vessel expenditures in port were substantially modified by strong climate oscillations, particularly in 1998. A cointegration time-series model predicted that a 40% decline in tuna landings and transhipment in Port Victoria, a value commensurate with that observed in 1998, would result in a 34% loss for the local economy solely through reductions in cargo handling expenditures. Of several indices tested, the Indian Oscillation Index was best at predicting the probability of switching between low and high regimes of landings and transhipment, which translate into impacts for the economy. It is hypothesised that a late 2006/early 2007 climate oscillation was compounded by prior overfishing to produce a stronger impact on the fishery and economy of Seychelles. The effects of fishing and climate variability on tuna fisheries are complex and pose significant challenges for fisheries management and the economic development of countries in the Indian Ocean.

This article builds a bridge between the endogenous economic growth theory, the biophysical economics perspective, and the past and future transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy forms that economies have had to and will have to accomplish. We provide an endogenous economic growth model subject to the physical limits of the real world, meaning that nonrenewable and renewable energy production costs have functional forms that respect physical constraints, and that technological level is precisely defined as the efficiency of primary-to useful exergy conversion. The model supports the evidence that historical pro ductions of renewable and nonrenewable energy have greatly influenced past economic growth. Indeed, from an initial almost-renewable-only supply regime we reproduce the increasing reliance on nonrenewable energy that has allowed the global economy to leave the state of economic stagnation that had character ized the largest part of its history. We then study the inevitable transition towards complete renewable energy that human will have to deal with in a not-too-far future since nonrenewable energy comes by definition from a finite stock. Through simulation we study in which circumstances this transition could have negative impacts on economic growth (peak followed by degrowth phase). We show that the implementation of a carbon price can partially smooth such unfor tunate dynamics, depending on the ways of use of the income generated by the carbon pricing.

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Households' daily mobility in France is characterized by the preponderance of the automobile. Passenger cars, mainly used by households but not only, are thus responsible for more than a half of fuel consumption in road transport (CGDD/SoES, July 2013) and more than a half of CO 2 emissions in the transport sector (SoES/CDC, December 2012). The main objective of this paper is thus to explain the modal choice of French households for their local daily trips, particularly the importance of the car, and to predict potential shifts from personal car to shared car. A multinomial logit model is estimated and reveals the particular importance of car equipment on modal choices and specifically on car use. Simulations by 2020 are thus conducted under three scenarios depending on the household's motorization (no car, one car, two cars or more) and per different mobility profiles. Personal car should remain the main mode of transportation by 2020 except if households have no car. In that case, modal shares would be more balanced, public transport would become the main transport mode and the shift to shared car would be at a maximum. Modal share of shared car could thus reach 16% for "exclusive motorists". A conditional logit model is also estimated and shows no particular importance of the means of transportation's costs in the modal choices. These results show that the increase in distances between 2010 and 2020 makes motorized modes more necessary. Thus, personal car and public transport should remain the main modes of transportation by 2020. Moreover, expected changes in costs and travel time by 2020 does not seem to have any effect on the deployment of shared car, its modal share being constant (in an average) between 2010 and 2020.

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