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All rights reserved. No part of this periodical may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. S ugarcane is of major social and economic importance in Brazil. It is one of the most important commodities in Brazilian agribusiness, contributing to the energy and food security of the country, as sugar, ethanol, and biomass for energy are produced from sugarcane (Goldemberg, 2007). Brazilian production of sugarcane has been expanding since the early 2000s, now reaching areas where it has never been planted, mainly driven by the rise in ethanol consumption in the internal market. The coefficient of variation of annual national production was 7.2% from 1990 to 2008, ranging from 5 to 12% among different regions. The new production areas, mainly located in Central and Northeast regions are more often subject to higher risk. Crop simulation models may contribute to improved crop monitoring and yield forecasting, while enhancing our understanding of sugarcane growth and yield. Worldwide, there are several models dedicated to sugarcane crop simulation: AUSCANE (

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This study evaluated the effects of climate change on sugarcane yield, water use efficiency, and irrigation needs in southern Brazil, based on downscaled outputs of two general circulation models (PRECIS and CSIRO) and a sugarcane growth model. For three harvest cycles every year, the DSSAT/CANEGRO model was used to simulate the baseline and four future climate scenarios for stalk yield for the 2050s. The model was calibrated for the main cultivar currently grown in Brazil based on five field experiments under several soil and climate conditions. The sensitivity of simulated stalk fresh mass (SFM) to air temperature, CO 2 concentration [CO 2 ] and rainfall was also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses to [CO 2 ], air temperature and rainfall variations were consistent with the literature. There were increases in simulated SFM and water usage efficiency (WUE) for all scenarios. On average, for the current sugarcane area in the State of São Paulo, SFM would increase 24 % and WUE 34 % for rainfed sugarcane. The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil. Considering the current technological improvement rate, projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 tha −1 , which are respectively 15 and 59 % higher than the current state average yield.Climatic Change (2013) 117:227-239 DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0561-