Summary Macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 (MIC-1/GDF15) is a member of the TGF-b superfamily, previously studied in cancer and inflammation. In addition to regulating body weight, MIC-1/GDF15 may be used to predict mortality and/or disease course in cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic renal and heart failure, as well as pulmonary embolism. These data suggested that MIC-1/GDF15 may be a marker of all-cause mortality. To determine if serum MIC-1/GDF15 estimation is a predictor of all-cause mortality we examined a cohort of 876 male subjects aged 35 to 80 years, selected from the Swedish Population Registry, and followed them for overall mortality. Serum MIC-1/GDF15 levels were determined for all subjects from samples taken at study entry. A second (independent) cohort of 324 same-sex twins (69% female) from the Swedish Twin Registry was similarly examined. All the twins had telomere length measured and 183 had serum levels of interleukin 6 (IL-6) and C reactive protein (CRP) available. Patients were followed for up to 14 years and had cause specific and all-cause mortality determined. Serum MIC-1/GDF15 levels predicted mortality in the all-male cohort with an adjusted odds ratio of death of 3.38 (95%CI 1.38–8.26). This finding was validated in the twin cohort. Serum MIC-1/GDF15 remained an independent predictor of mortality when further adjusted for telomere length, IL-6 and CRP. Additionally, serum MIC-1/GDF15 levels were directly correlated with survival time independently of genetic background. Serum MIC-1/GDF15 is a novel predictor of all-cause mortality.

Purpose High serum levels of macrophage inhibitory cytokine 1 (MIC-1) are strongly associated with metastatic prostate cancer, suggesting MIC-1 is a biomarker for prostate cancer prognosis. Experimental Design We conducted a prospective cohort study of 1,442 Swedish men with a pathologically verified diagnosis of prostate cancer between 2001 and 2003. Blood was drawn either pretreatment (n = 431) or posttreatment (n = 1,011) and cases were followed for a mean time of 4.9 years (range, 0.1–6.8 years). Results MIC-1 serum levels independently predicted poor cancer-specific survival with an almost 3-fold higher cancer death rate in patients with serum levels in the highest quartile compared with men with serum levels in the lowest quartile (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.82–4.68). Pretreatment MIC-1 levels revealed an even stronger association with disease outcome with an 8-fold higher death rate in the highest compared with the lowest category (adjusted hazard ratio, 7.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.73–36.86). Among patients considered to have localized disease, MIC-1 significantly increased the discriminative capacity between indolent and lethal prostate cancer compared with the established prognostic markers clinical stage, pathologic grade, and prostate-specific antigen level (P = 0.016). A sequence variant in the MIC-1 gene was associated with decreased MIC-1 serum levels (P = 0.002) and decreased prostate cancer mortality (P = 0.003), suggesting a causative role of MIC-1 in prostate cancer prognosis. Conclusions Serum MIC-1 concentration is a novel biomarker capable of predicting prostate cancer prognosis.