Since December 2019, over 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2-related fatalities have been recorded in the World Health Organization European Region - 90.2% in people ≥ 60 years. We calculated lives saved in this age group by COVID-19 vaccination in 33 countries from December 2020 to November 2021, using weekly reported deaths and vaccination coverage. We estimated that vaccination averted 469,186 deaths (51% of 911,302 expected deaths; sensitivity range: 129,851–733,744; 23–62%). Impact by country ranged 6–93%, largest when implementation was early.

In Belgium, high-risk contacts of an infected person were offered PCR-testing irrespective of their vaccination status. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection and onwards transmission, controlling for previous infections, household-exposure and temporal trends. We included 301,741 tests from 25 January to 24 June 2021. Full-schedule vaccination was associated with significant protection against infection. In addition, mRNA-vaccines reduced onward transmission: VE-estimates increased to >90% when index and contact were fully vaccinated. The small number of viral-vector vaccines included limited interpretability.

The objective of this study was to investigate the incidence and risk factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections. We included all persons ≥18 years that had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 for ≥14 days, between 1 February 2021 and 5 December 2021, in Belgium. The incidence of breakthrough infections (laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infections) was determined. Factors associated with breakthrough infections were analyzed using COX proportional hazard models. Among 8,062,600 fully vaccinated adults, we identified 373,070 breakthrough infections with an incidence of 11.2 (95%CI 11.2–11.3)/100 person years. Vaccination with Ad26.COV2.S (HR1.54, 95%CI 1.52–1.56) or ChAdOx1 (HR1.68, 95%CI 1.66–1.69) was associated with a higher risk of a breakthrough infection compared to BNT162b2, while mRNA-1273 was associated with a lower risk (HR0.68, 95%CI 0.67–0.69). A prior COVID-19-infection was protective against a breakthrough infection (HR0.23, 95%CI 0.23–0.24), as was an mRNA booster (HR0.44, 95%CI 0.43–0.45). During a breakthrough infection, those who had a prior COVID-19 infection were less likely to have COVID-19 symptoms of almost all types than naïve persons. We identified risk factors associated with breakthrough infections, such as vaccination with adenoviral-vector vaccines, which could help inform future decisions on booster vaccination strategies. A prior COVID-19 infection lowered the risk of breakthrough infections and of having symptoms, highlighting the protective effect of hybrid immunity.

Background In Belgium, the first COVID-19 death was reported on 10 March 2020. Nursing home (NH) residents are particularly vulnerable for COVID-19, making it essential to follow-up the spread of COVID-19 in this setting. This manuscript describes the methodology of surveillance and epidemiology of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in Belgian NHs. Methods A COVID-19 surveillance in all Belgian NHs (n = 1542) was set up by the regional health authorities and Sciensano. Aggregated data on possible/confirmed COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations and case-based data on deaths were reported by NHs at least once a week. The study period covered April–December 2020. Weekly incidence/prevalence data were calculated per 1000 residents or staff members. Results This surveillance has been launched within 14 days after the first COVID-19 death in Belgium. Automatic data cleaning was installed using different validation rules. More than 99% of NHs participated at least once, with a median weekly participation rate of 95%. The cumulative incidence of possible/confirmed COVID-19 cases among residents was 206/1000 in the first wave and 367/1000 in the second wave. Most NHs (82%) reported cases in both waves and 74% registered ≥10 possible/confirmed cases among residents at one point in time. In 51% of NHs, at least 10% of staff was absent due to COVID-19 at one point. Between 11 March 2020 and 3 January 2021, 11,329 COVID-19 deaths among NH residents were reported, comprising 57% of all COVID-19 deaths in Belgium in that period. Conclusions This surveillance was crucial in mapping COVID-19 in this vulnerable setting and guiding public health interventions, despite limitations of aggregated data and necessary changes in protocol over time. Belgian NHs were severely hit by COVID-19 with many fatal cases. The measure of not allowing visitors, implemented in the beginning of the pandemic, could not avoid the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the NHs during the first wave. The virus was probably often introduced by staff. Once the virus was introduced, it was difficult to prevent healthcare-associated outbreaks. Although, in contrast to the first wave, personal protective equipment was available in the second wave, again a high number of cases were reported.

Experimental studies are usually designed with specific expectations about the results in mind. However, most researchers apply some form of omnibus test to test for any differences, with follow up tests like pairwise comparisons or simple effects analyses for further investigation of the effects. The power to find full support for the theory with such an exploratory approach which is usually based on multiple testing is, however, rather disappointing. With the simulations in this paper we showed that many of the common choices in hypothesis testing led to a severely underpowered form of theory evaluation. Furthermore, some less commonly used approaches were presented and a comparison of results in terms of power to find support for the theory was made. We concluded that confirmatory methods are required in the context of theory evaluation and that the scientific literature would benefit from a clearer distinction between confirmatory and exploratory findings. Also, we emphasis the importance of reporting all tests, significant or not, including the appropriate sample statistics like means and standard deviations. Another recommendation is related to the fact that researchers, when they discuss the conclusions of their own study, seem to underestimate the role of sampling variability. The execution of more replication studies in combination with proper reporting of all results provides insight in between study variability and the amount of chance findings.