Due to vertical variations in ocean circulation, larval Northeast Arctic cod Gadus morhua may influence their own drift routes by migrating vertically. By coupling a larval individualbased model and a general circulation model, we simulated larval vertical positioning according to simple rules based on individual risk sensitivity. This enabled us to investigate how larval growth, survival and horizontal distribution vary between individuals following different rules. Immediate depth selection follows from the rules, with implications for environmental exposure and instantaneous growth rates. The behavioural rules had long-term and large-scale consequences, since vertical positioning influences the drift trajectory of the larva, and thereby the physical environment the larva experiences along its way. Two alternative rule formulations were explored, each containing the full range of strategies, from maximising immediate growth to maximising immediate survival. Fitness was defined as accumulated survival probability up to 18 mm for larvae released at 2 important spawning grounds in the Lofoten area. Both rules gave better fitness than for individuals drifting at fixed depths. The most successful individuals performed active vertical migration and had an intermediate risk sensitivity. When risk sensitivity was allowed to change with ontogeny, larvae that first emphasised growth and then changed to intermediate risk sensitivity were the most successful ones, although improvements were minor compared to fixed sensitivities. The 2 spawning grounds led to slight differences in fitness, but success as a result of risk sensitivity was similar at both, suggesting that optimal larval strategies may be robust across different spawning grounds.

Mork, K. A., Gilbey, J., Hansen, L. P., Jensen, A. J., Jacobsen, J. A., Holm, M., Holst, J. C., Ó Maoiléidigh, N., Vikebø, F., McGinnity, P., Melle, W., Thomas, K., Verspoor, E., and Wennevik, V. 2012. Modelling the migration of post-smolt Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Northeast Atlantic. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 1616–1624. The migration of post-smolt Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) during their first 4 months at sea in the Northeast Atlantic was simulated using an individual-based model that combined a particle-tracking scheme with growth and behaviour routines. The migration was decomposed into both passive pelagic drift with the surface currents, provided by an ocean model, and active horizontal swimming behaviour. The active swimming direction was aligned with the surface current. Swimming speed was a function of body length and calculated from recaptured tagged salmon. Releases of particles in the model were made to the west of Ireland and to the southwest of Norway. The modelled post-smolt distributions were compared with the observed distributions, and a sensitivity analysis using different swimming speeds was performed. The strength and direction of the flow can transport the post-smolts towards areas with favourable feeding conditions. However, in some areas, the direction of migration was sensitive to interannual changes in the windforcing, leading the post-smolts to areas with a different environment and prey. Inclusion in the swimming behaviour of a preference for water with higher temperature and salinity displaced the northward migration more offshore, away from coastal areas.

The polar cod (Boreogadus saida) in the Barents Sea is one of the main stocks of this species in the Arctic, reaching a total biomass of almost 2 million tonnes in some years. It has been fluctuating considerably in abundance, and in recent years, it has been at a low level. Only small catches have been taken from the stock over the last four decades, and consequently, the observed variation in abundance must be caused by natural (environmental and/or biological) changes in the ecosystem. Sea temperatures have been rising in the Barents Sea in recent years, possibly causing changes to the living conditions of this true Arctic stock. Consequently, there is a need for investigating how the observed changes might affect polar cod in this area. One important aspect of the environmental impact on the stock is possible effect on the recruitment, which has been varying considerably from year to year. In this modelling study, we thus recreate and analyse the environmental and developmental histories of the observed 0-group individuals in the Barents Sea (young of the year), with emphasis on the importance of ice cover, ice breakup time, maximum temperature, and spawning stock biomass. Our simulations indicate that the environmental conditions experienced by individuals successfully "recruited" to the 0-group are characterized by high ice concentration well into summer, and low temperatures throughout the pelagic juvenile phase, and any perturbations from the Arctic ocean climate typically found in the northern and eastern Barents Sea appears to be detrimental to stock recruitment. In light of the projected warming of the Barents Sea in the next decades and the potential reduction in ice cover, this will entail, the mechanisms investigated herein might lead to future marginalization of polar cod in the Barents Sea.

The ability of larval fish to find food successfully after hatching is critical for their growth and survival during the early life stages. However, the feeding ecology of larval fish is strongly dependent on prevailing physical and biological conditions. Small changes in the prey distribution, turbulence, light, and ocean temperature can affect larval survival probabilities. This study combined physical and biological observations collected from Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) spawning grounds from Lofoten, Norway, during the years 1991–1992 with an individual-based model (IBM) that is able to simulate behaviour, feeding, and growth. Observational data on the vertical distribution of larval cod revealed that they congregated at 10–25 m during the day, although the highest abundance of prey was generally in the upper 10 m. Using the behavioural component of the IBM, we analysed the mechanistic interactions between larval bioenergetics and the physical–biological environment and compared modelled with observed vertical larval cod distribution. During periods of both low and high prey densities, turbulence had a significant impact on larval cod feeding and growth rates as well as on larval vertical distribution. At low prey abundance (<5 nauplii l−1), turbulence enhanced encounter rates were very important for sustaining ingestion and growth rates for first-feeding larval cod. Our results suggest that turbulence allowed larval cod to sustain high ingestion rates even deeper in the water column, where prey densities are usually lower.