This study aims to generate a banking soundness index by utilizing endogenous variables specific to banks in order to measure the banking sector's financial soundness. The core set of the financial stability index of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is taken as the basis and the calculations of the proposed index are made with the quarterly data over the period 2007:Q2-2020:Q3. The variables in the sub-indicators are standardized using the minmax normalization technique. The principal component analysis method is employed on the standardized data. According to the results of the principal component analysis, variables are categorized into two main components. A strong relationship exists between profitability and liquidity ratios in the first principal component. In the second principal component, it is observed that market risk and certain capital adequacy ratios are associated with each other. The index reached its highest level in 2007:Q2. It is observed to reach its lowest levels in 2015:Q3 and 2020:Q1. It is seen that the calculated banking soundness index complies with the evaluations about the banking sector included in the financial stability reports published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).
This study aims to explain the association between the quarterly data obtained over the period 2007: Q2–2020: Q3 for Turkey and the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) proposed within the framework of Basel III with banking performance and risk indicators. For this purpose the association among the variables was analyzed using the ARDL model and by performing the Toda Yamamoto (T-Y) causality test. According to the analysis results, it was determined that the CCyB has a statistically significant and positive relationship with the capital adequacy indicators of the banks in the long-run, however, it has a statistically significant and negative relationship with the asset quality risk and currency risk indicators. In the short-run it was determined that the CCyB has a statistically significant and positive relationship with the capital adequacy, profitability and liquidity indicators and similar to the long-term relationship, it has a statistically significant and negative relationship with the asset quality risk and exchange rate risk indicators. According to the causality test results, a statistically significant and unilateral causality running from the indicators of capital adequacy, asset quality and exchange rate risk to the CCyB was detected. The obtained estimation results indicate that the CCyB can be increased by policymakers during the periods when the performance indicators of the banking sector rise, whereas can be decreased by policymakers during the periods when the risk indicators of the sector rise. Furthermore, the results of the study asserted that the CCyB was an appropriate instrument for mitigating the macroeconomic and systemic risks for Turkey.
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