Abstract. The implementation of the Global Positioning System (GPS) network of satellites and the development of small, high-performance instrumentation to receive GPS signals have created an opportunity for active remote sounding of the Earth's atmosphere by radio occultation at comparatively low cost. A prototype demonstration of this capability has now been provided by the GPS/MET investigation. Despite using relatively immature technology, GPS/MET has been extremely successful [Ware et al., 1996; Kursinski et al., 1996], although there is still room for improvement. The aim of this paper is to develop a theoretical estimate of the spatial coverage, resolution, and accuracy that can be expected for atmospheric profiles derived from GPS occultations. We consider observational geometry, attenuation, and diffraction in defining the vertical range of the observations and their resolution. We present the first systematic, extensive error analysis of the spacecraft radio occultation technique using a combination of analytical and simulation methods to establish a baseline accuracy for retrieved profiles of refractivity, geopotential, and temperature. Typically, the vertical resolution of the observations ranges from 0.5 km in the lower troposphere to 1.4 km in the middle atmosphere. Results indicate that useful profiles of refractivity can be derived from -60 km altitude to the surface with the exception of regions less than 250 m in vertical extent associated with high vertical humidity gradients. Above the 250 K altitude level in the troposphere, where the effects of water are negligible, sub-Kelvin temperature accuracy is predicted up to -40 km depending on the phase of the solar cycle. Geopotential heights of constant pressure levels are expected to be accurate to ~ 10 m or better between 10 and 20 km altitudes. Below the 250 K level, the ambiguity between water and dry atmosphere refractivity becomes significant, and temperature accuracy is degraded. Deep in the warm troposphere the contribution of water to refractivity becomes sufficiently large for the accurate retrieval of water vapor given independent temperatures from weather analyses . The radio occultation technique possesses a unique combination of global coverage, high precision, high vertical resolution, insensitivity to atmospheric particulates, and long-term stability. We show here how these properties are well suited for several applications including numerical weather prediction and long-term monitoring of the Earth's climate.

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The German Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Argentine Satelite de Aplicaciones Cientificas‐C (SAC‐C) Earth science missions, launched in 2000, carry a new generation of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers for radio occultation sounding of the ionosphere and neutral atmosphere. Though the occultation concept for obtaining profiles of atmospheric temperature, pressure, and moisture was proven in 1995 with GPS/MET, concurrent measurements from CHAMP and SAC‐C present the first opportunity for a preliminary evaluation of three central claims: (1) GPS soundings are effectively free of instrumental bias and drift; (2) individual temperature profiles are accurate to <0.5 K between ∼5 and 20 km; and (3) averaged profiles for climate studies can be accurate to <0.1 K. These properties imply that a weak climate trend can be monitored and detected in less than a decade and studied by different instruments at different times with no external calibration. While this detection cannot by itself tell us the source of the climate change, whether natural and anthropogenic, this detection is a prerequisite to answer the more difficult problem of understanding the cause of change. In this paper, these three claims are evaluated by comparing nearby CHAMP and SAC‐C profiles. Of nearly 130,000 profiles examined, 212 pairs occurring within 30 min and 200 km of one another were found. Profile pairs agree to <0.86 K (68% confidence interval) and to within 0.1 K in the mean between 5 and 15 km altitude, after removing the expected variability of the atmosphere. If the errors in CHAMP and SAC‐C are assumed to be uncorrelated, this implies that individual profiles are precise to <0.6 K between 5 and 15 km. Individual comparisons show closest agreement near the tropopause and display finer resolution than and substantially different temperatures from numerical weather model analyses from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Comparisons between CHAMP and SAC‐C largely indicate precision; however, several features observed in common, especially near the tropopause, tend also to indicate accuracy. Limitations of previous experiments (e.g., GPS/MET) in probing the lower troposphere have significantly improved with CHAMP and SAC‐C, with the majority of profiles (60%) descending to the lowest 0.5 km. This is expected to increase to 90–95% with future system improvements. However, the N‐bias problem encountered in GPS/MET is also present in CHAMP and SAC‐C, and it is expected to be much reduced once open loop tracking is implemented. Examples are selected to illustrate lower tropospheric sensing, including detection of the planetary boundary layer height. For the first time, such performance is achieved with GPS Antispoofing encryption on. Daily occultations currently number ∼350–400; this is expected to reach over 1000 in the near future, rivaling the number of semidaily radiosonde launches. With several new missions in planning, this may increase tenfold in the next 3–8 years, making GPS sounding a pot...

[1] The scintillations of phase and amplitude in terms of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the GPS radio occultation signal are caused by thin ionization layers. These thin irregular electron density layers in the E region ionosphere are often called sporadic E (E s ). For a monthly retrieval of E s morphology we use the variances of the phase and SNR fluctuations of worldwide $6000 GPS/CHAMP occultations in the E region. The E s climatology is studied globally with the SNR and phase variances in terms of monthly zonal means, seasonal maps, and diurnal and long-term variations. The zonal mean variances reveal strong, extended E s activities at summertime midlatitudes but weak, confined activities in wintertime high latitudes, peaking at $105 km. Global maps at 105-km altitude show clear dependence of E s activities on the geomagnetic dip angle, where the summertime midlatitude E s occurs mostly at dip angles of 30°-60°and the wintertime high-latitude enhancement occurs mostly at dip angles >80°. The midlatitude E s variances exhibit a strong semidiurnal variation with peak hours near 0800-1000 and 2000 local solar time, respectively. The peak hours are delayed slightly with decreasing height, suggesting influences from the semidiurnal tide. To provide more insights on the observed SNR and phase variances, we model radio wave propagation for the CHAMP observing geometry under several perturbed cases in the E region ionosphere. The model simulations indicate that the SNR variance has the maximum response to E s perturbations at vertical wavelengths of $1.2 km, whereas the phase response maximizes at $2 km (for the 1-s variance analysis). The characteristic scale depends little on the truncation time used in the SNR variance analysis, but it increases with the truncation time for the phase variances. Initial studies show that reasonable global E s morphology can be produced on a monthly and seasonal basis with the CHAMP oneantenna occultations. Better results from other existing and upcoming GPS occultation missions are anticipated in future studies, and they will significantly improve our understanding of this important phenomenon.