No abstract

Abstract. Ultra low frequency, kHz and MHz electromagnetic (EM) anomalies were recorded prior to the L'Aquila catastrophic earthquake that occurred on 6 April 2009. The main aims of this paper are threefold: (i) suggest a procedure for the designation of detected EM anomalies as seismogenic ones. We do not expect to be able to provide a succinct and solid definition of a pre-seismic EM emission. Instead, we aim, through a multidisciplinary analysis, to provide the elements of a definition. (ii) Link the detected MHz and kHz EM anomalies with equivalent last stages of the earthquake preparation process. (iii) Put forward physically meaningful arguments for quantifying the time to global failure and the identification of distinguishing features beyond which the evolution towards global failure becomes irreversible. We emphasize that we try to specify not only whether a single EM anomaly is pre-seismic in itself, but also whether a combination of kHz, MHz, and ULF EM anomalies can be characterized as pre-seismic. The entire procedure unfolds in two consecutive parts. Here in Part 1 we focus on the detected kHz EM anomaly, which play a crucial role in our approach to these challenges. We try to discriminate clearly this anomaly from background noise. For this purpose, we analyze the data successively in terms of various concepts of entropy and information theory including, Shannon n-block entropy, conditional entropy, entropy of the Correspondence to: K. Eftaxias (ceftax@phys.uoa.gr) source, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy, T -entropy, approximate entropy, fractal spectral analysis, R/S analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis. We argue that this analysis reliably distinguishes the candidate kHz EM precursor from the noise: the launch of anomalies from the normal state is combined by a simultaneous appearance of a significantly higher level of organization, and persistency. This finding indicates that the process in which the anomalies are rooted is governed by a positive feedback mechanism. This mechanism induces a non-equilibrium process, i.e., a catastrophic event. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the two crucial signatures included in the kHz EM precursor are also hidden in other quite different, complex catastrophic events as predicted by the theory of complex systems. However, our view is that such an analysis by itself cannot establish a kHz EM anomaly as a precursor. It likely offers necessary but not sufficient criteria in order to recognize an anomaly as preseismic. In Part 2 we aim to provide sufficient criteria: the fracture process is characterized by fundamental universally valid scaling relationships which should be reflected in a real fracto-electromagnetic activity. Moreover, we aim to answer the following two key questions: (i) How can we link an individual EM precursor with a distinctive stage of the EQ preparation process; and (ii) How can we identify precursory symptoms in EM observations that indicate that the occurrence of the EQ is unavoidable.

Abstract. Many aspects of earthquake generation still escape our full understanding. Observations of electromagnetic emissions preceding significant earthquakes provide one of the few cases of premonitory events that are possibly related to a subsequent earthquake. Understanding the factors that control electromagnetic precursors generation seems to be important for determining how significant earthquakes nucleate. Here we report the results of a comprehensive study of the appearance of individual patterns in candidate electromagnetic precursors possibly indicating the breaking of backbone of large and strong asperities that sustain the activated fault. The search of precursory patterns is mainly based on well documented scaling properties of fault surface topology. More precisely, we argue that the candidate electromagnetic precursors might be originated during the slipping of two rough and rigid fractional-Brownian-motion-type profiles one over the other, with a roughness which is consistent with field and laboratory studies. The results also imply that the activation of a single earthquake (fault) is a reduced selfaffine image of the whole regional seismicity and a magnified self-affine image of the laboratory seismicity.

Strong electromagnetic (EM) anomalies have been detected, from MHz to kHz, prior to the three destructive earthquakes occurred during 1995–1999 in Greece. The observed sequence of EM anomalies before the Kozani‐Grevena earthquake (K‐G) of Ms = 6.6 on May 13, 1995 showed some important characteristics: (i) an increasing electromagnetic emission rate; (ii) an emergence of lower kHz frequencies with large amplitudes at the tail of the MHz electromagnetic anomaly; (iii) an electromagnetic quiescence approximately a few hours before the earthquake and (iv) a total absence of EM anomalies during the aftershock period. All these features are compatible with those reported by other authors. This sequence of the field observed EM signals revealed, in terms of emission pattern, similarities to the laboratory acoustic (AE) emissions during different stages of failure preparation process in rocks.

Abstract. Electromagnetic anomalies (EMA) covering a wide range of frequencies from ULF, VLF up to VHF have been observed before recent destructive earthquakes in continental Greece. We show that the features of these signals are possibly correlated with the fault model characteristics of the associated earthquake and with the degree of geotectonic heterogeneity within the focal zone. The time evolution of these electromagnetic sequences reveals striking similarities to that observed in laboratory acoustic and electromagnetic emissions during different stages of failure preparation process in rocks. If we consider that the same dynamics governs the large-scale earthquakes and the microscopic scale sample rheological structure, the results of this analysis suggest that the recorded EMA might reflect the nucleation phase of the associated impending earthquake. We focus on the rise of the statistical view of earthquakes. We find electromagnetic fingerprints of an underlying critical mechanism. Finally, we conclude that it is useful to combine ULF and VLF-VHF field measurements in an attempt to enhance the understanding of the physics behind these observations and thus to improve the quality of earthquake prediction. Further, the identification of an EMA as a seismogenic one supports the characterization of a sequence of shocks as foreshocks at the time they occur, further helping the earthquake prediction effort.