Fracture in disordered media is a complex problem for which a definitive physical and theoretical treatment is still lacking. We view earthquakes (EQ's) as large-scale fracture phenomena in the Earth's heterogeneous crust. Our main observational tool is the monitoring of the microfractures, which occur in the prefocal area before the final breakup, by recording their kHz-MHz electromagnetic (EM) emissions, with the MHz radiation appearing earlier than the kHz. Two fundamental questions (unanswered yet) that scientists in this field ought to address are as follows. (i) Is there a way of estimating the time to global failure? (ii) Is the evolution towards global failure irreversible after the appearance of distinguishing features in the preseismic EM time series? We attempt to put forward physically powerful arguments with regard to answering these two basic questions. Our approach will be in terms of critical phase transitions in statistical physics, drawing on recently published results. We obtain two major results. First, the initial MHz part of the preseismic emission, which has anti-persistent behavior, is triggered by microfractures in the highly disordered system that surrounds the essentially homogeneous "backbone asperities" within the prefocal area and could be described in analogy with a thermal continuous phase transition. However, the analysis reveals that the system is gradually driven out of equilibrium. Considerations of the symmetry-breaking and "intermittent dynamics of critical fluctuations" method estimate the time beyond which the process generating the preseismic EM emission could continue only as a nonequilibrium instability. Second, the abrupt emergence of strong kHz emission in the tail of the precursory radiation, showing strong persistent behavior, is thought to be due to the fracture of the high-strength "backbones". The associated phase of the EQ nucleation is a nonequilibrium process without any footprint of an equilibrium thermal phase transition. The family of asperities sustains the system. Physically, the appearance of persistent properties may indicate that the process acquires a self-regulating character and to a great degree the property of irreversibility, one of the important components of predictive capability. We address the role of the order of material heterogeneity on the transition from anti-persistent to persistent behavior.

Fractal statistical analysis under the critical point (CP) hypothesis is applied to electromagnetic (EM) signals emitted before failure. A new approach to the analysis of a possible EM fractal pattern evolution toward CP is suggested. The analysis reveals characteristic signs of approaching the CP: the emergence of memory effects; the increase of the spatial correlation; the decrease of the antipersistence behavior; the appearance of persistence properties in the tail of the precursors, a loss of multifractality, and, finally, the divergence of the energy release rate. These critical features are compatible with the percolation theory of fracture process.

Abstract. We show that distinct changes in scaling parameters of the D st index time series occur as an intense magnetic storm approaches, revealing a gradual reduction in complexity. The remarkable acceleration of energy release -manifested in the increase in susceptibility -couples to the transition from anti-persistent (negative feedback) to persistent (positive feedback) behavior and indicates that the occurence of an intense magnetic storm is imminent. The main driver of the D st index, the V B South electric field component, does not reveal a similar transition to persistency prior to the storm. This indicates that while the magnetosphere is mostly driven by the solar wind the critical feature of persistency in the magnetosphere is the result of a combination of solar wind and internal magnetospheric activity rather than solar wind variations alone. Our results suggest that the development of an intense magnetic storm can be studied in terms of "intermittent criticality" that is of a more general character than the classical self-organized criticality phenomena, implying the predictability of the magnetosphere.

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There is a recent thesis in the literature that an important organization of a physical system precedes a catastrophic event. In this context, one can search for signatures that imply the transition from a normal state to a main catastrophic event (e.g., earthquake). Experimental techniques are thus useful in corroborating theories from observed data. For example, recent results indicate that preseismic electromagnetic time series contain information characteristic of an ensuing earthquake event. Hereby, we attempt to demonstrate that an easily computable complexity measure, such as T-complexity or approximate entropy, gives evidence of state changes leading to the point of global instability. The appearance of a precatastrophic state is characterized by significant lower complexity in terms of T-complexity and approximate entropy. The present study confirms the conclusions of previous works based on an independent linear fractal spectral analysis. This convergence between nonlinear and linear analysis provides a more reliable detection concerning the emergence of the last phase of the earthquake preparation process. More precisely, we claim that our results suggest an important principle: significant complexity decrease and accession of persistency in electromagnetic (EM) time series can be confirmed at the tail of the preseismic EM emission, which could be used as diagnostic tools for the Earth's impending crust failure. Direct laboratory and field experimental data as well as theoretical arguments support the conclusions of the present analysis.