Until recently, uncertainty quantification in low energy nuclear theory was typically performed using frequentist approaches. However in the last few years, the field has shifted toward Bayesian statistics for evaluating confidence intervals. Although there are statistical arguments to prefer the Bayesian approach, no direct comparison is available. In this work, we compare, directly and systematically, the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to quantifying uncertainties in direct nuclear reactions. Starting from identical initial assumptions, we determine confidence intervals associated with the elastic and the transfer process for both methods, which are evaluated against data via a comparison of the empirical coverage probabilities. Expectedly, the frequentist approach is not as flexible as the Bayesian approach in exploring parameter space and often ends up in a different minimum. We also show that the two methods produce significantly different correlations. In the end, the frequentist approach produces significantly narrower uncertainties on the considered observables than the Bayesian. Our study demonstrates that the uncertainties on the reaction observables considered here within the Bayesian approach represent reality more accurately than the much narrower uncertainties obtained using the standard frequentist approach.

We report quantum Monte Carlo calculations of weak transitions in A 10 nuclei, based on the Norfolk two-and three-nucleon chiral interactions, and associated one-and two-body axial currents. We find that the contribution from two-body currents is at the 2-3% level, with the exception of matrix elements entering the rates of 8 Li, 8 B, and 8 He β decay. These matrix elements are suppressed in impulse approximation based on the (leading order) Gamow Teller transition operator alone; two-body currents provide a 20-30% correction, which is, however, insufficient to bring theory in agreement with experimental data. For the other transitions, the agreement with the data is satisfactory, and the results exhibit a negligible to mild model dependence when different combinations of Norfolk interactions are utilized to construct the nuclear wave functions. We report a complete study of two-body weak transition densities which reveals the expected universal behavior of two-body currents at short distances throughout the range of A = 3 to A = 10 systems considered here.

Background: Uncertainty quantification for nuclear theories has gained a more prominent role in the field, with more and more groups attempting to understand the uncertainties on their calculations. However, recent studies have shown that the uncertainties on the optical potentials are too large for the theory to be useful.Purpose: The purpose of this work is to explore possible experimental conditions that may reduced the uncertainties on elastic scattering and single-nucleon transfer cross sections that come from the fitting of the optical model parameters to experimental data.Method: Using Bayesian methods, we explore the effect of the uncertainties of optical model parameters on the angular grid of the differential cross section, including cross section data at nearby energies, and changes in the experimental error bars. We also study the effect on the resulting uncertainty when other observables are included in the fitting procedure, particularly the total (reaction) cross sections.Results: We study proton and neutron elastic scattering on 48 Ca and 208 Pb. We explore the parameter space with Markov-Chain Monte Carlo, produce posterior distributions for the optical model parameters, and construct the corresponding 95% confidence intervals on the elastic-scattering cross sections. We also propagate the uncertainties on the optical potentials to the 48 Ca(d,p) 49 Ca(g.s.) and 208 Pb(d,p) 209 Pb(g.s.) cross sections.Conclusions: We find little sensitivity to the angular grid and an improvement of up to a factor of 2 on the uncertainties by including data at a nearby energy. Although reducing the error bars on the data does reduce the uncertainty, the gain is often considerably smaller than one would naively expect. We also find that the inclusion of total reaction cross section can improve the uncertainty although the magnitude of the effect depends strongly on the cases considered.