After reviewing some general issues concerning solvency and the problems associated with establishing the financial strength of a general insurance company using the traditional balance sheet concept, the authors put forward an emerging costs approach for examining the strength of a company. This enables the true nature of the assets and liabilities to be taken into account, including their essential variability. Simulation is suggested as a powerful tool for use in examining the financial strength of a company and in exploring the impact of alternative scenarios. A particular example of such a simulation model is then presented and used to explore the resilience of a company's financial position to variations in a wide variety of parameters. The model enables the user to quantify the probability that the assets will prove adequate to meet the liabilities with or without an assumption of continuing business. This in turn permits an appropriate asset margin to be assessed individually for any particular company in the light of the strategy that the company intends to follow. Some of the implications of this approach for the management and supervision of general insurance companies are explored. The suggestion is made that the effectiveness of statutory supervision based on the balance sheet and a crude solvency margin requirement is limited, since it cannot have proper regard to the risk profile of individual companies. More responsibility should be placed on an actuary or other suitably qualified professional individual to report on the overall financial strength of the company, both to management and to the supervisory authorities.

The authors challenge the traditional balance sheet concept of the solvency of a general insurance company and put forward an emerging costs concept, which enables the true nature of the assets and liabilities to be taken into account, including their essential variability. Simulation is suggested as a powerful tool for use in examining the financial strength of a company. A simulation model is then used to explore the resilience of a company's financial position to a variety of possible outcomes and to assess the probability that the assets will prove adequate to meet the liabilities with or without an assumption of continuing new business. This suggests the need for an appropriate asset margin assessed individually for each company. The implications for the management and supervision of general insurance companies are explored. The suggestion is made that the effectiveness of supervision based on the balance sheet and a crude solvency margin requirement is limited. More responsibility should be placed on an actuary or other suitably qualified professional individual to report on the overall financial strength of the company, both to management and to the supervisory authorities.

The authors challenge the traditional balance sheet concept of the solvency of a general insurance company and put forward an emerging costs concept, which enables the true nature of the assets and liabilities to be taken into account, including their essential variability. Simulation is suggested as a powerful tool for use in examining the financial strength of a company. A simulation model is then used to explore the resilience of a company's financial position to a variety of possible outcomes and to assess the probability that the assets will prove adequate to meet the liabilities with or without an assumption of continuing new business. This suggests the need for an appropriate asset margin assessed individually for each company. The implications for the management and supervision of general insurance companies are explored. The suggestion is made that the effectiveness of supervision based on the balance sheet and a crude solvency margin requirement is limited. More responsibility should be placed on an actuary or other suitably qualified professional individual to report on the overall financial strength of the company, both to management and to the supervisory authorities.

No abstract

No abstract