No abstract

[1] Building on work from previous studies a strong case is presented for the existence of a long-term density decline in the thermosphere. Using a specially developed orbital propagator to predict satellite orbit evolution, combined with a new and accurate method of determining satellite ballistic coefficients, a long-term thermospheric density change has been detected using a different method compared to previous studies. Over a 40-year period between the years 1970 and 2010, thermospheric density has appeared to reduce by a few percent per decade. However, the results do not show the thermospheric density reduction to vary linearly with time. Therefore, by analyzing the derived density data over varying solar activity levels, as well as performing a Fourier spectral analysis to highlight any periodicities, connections with physical phenomena, where possible, are proposed.Citation: Saunders, A., H. Lewis, and G. Swinerd (2011), Further evidence of long-term thermospheric density change using a new method of satellite ballistic coefficient estimation,

[1] Historically, computer simulations of the near-Earth space debris environment have provided a basis for international debris mitigation guidelines and, today, continue to influence international debate on debris environment remediation and active debris removal. Approximately 22,500 objects larger than 10 cm are known to exist in Earth orbit, and less than 5% of these are operational payloads, with the remaining population classed as space debris. These objects represent a significant risk to satellite operations because of the possibility of damaging or catastrophic collisions, as demonstrated by the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in February 2009. Indeed, recent computer simulations have suggested that the current population in low Earth orbit (LEO) has reached a sufficient density at some altitudes for collision activity there to continue even in the absence of new launches. Even with the widespread adoption of debris mitigation guidelines, the growth of the LEO population, in particular, is expected to result in eight or nine collisions among cataloged objects in the next 40 years. With a new study using the University of Southampton's space debris model, entitled DAMAGE, we show that the effectiveness of debris mitigation and removal strategies to constrain the growth of the LEO debris population could be more than halved because of a long-term future decline in global thermospheric density. However, increasing debris remediation efforts can reverse the impact of this negative density trend.

The 'particles-in-a-box' (PIB) model introduced by Talent [Talent, D.L. Analytic model for orbital debris environmental management. J. Spacecraft Rocket, 29 (4), [508][509][510][511][512][513] 1992.] removed the need for computer-intensive Monte Carlo simulation to predict the gross characteristics of an evolving debris environment. The PIB model was described using a differential equation that allows the stability of the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment to be tested by a straightforward analysis of the equation's coefficients. As part of an ongoing research effort to investigate more efficient approaches to evolutionary modelling and to develop a suite of educational tools, a new PIB model has been developed. The model, entitled Fast Debris Evolution (FADE), employs a first-order differential equation to describe the rate at which new objects P10 cm are added and removed from the environment. Whilst Talent [Talent, D.L. Analytic model for orbital debris environmental management. J. Spacecraft Rocket, 29 (4), [508][509][510][511][512][513] 1992.] based the collision theory for the PIB approach on collisions between gas particles and adopted specific values for the parameters of the model from a number of references, the form and coefficients of the FADE model equations can be inferred from the outputs of future projections produced by high-fidelity models, such as the DAMAGE model.The FADE model has been implemented as a client-side, web-based service using JavaScript embedded within a HTML document. Due to the simple nature of the algorithm, FADE can deliver the results of future projections immediately in a graphical format, with complete user-control over key simulation parameters. Historical and future projections for the P10 cm LEO debris environment under a variety of different scenarios are possible, including business as usual, no future launches, post-mission disposal and remediation. A selection of results is presented with comparisons with predictions made using the DAMAGE environment model. The results demonstrate that the FADE model is able to capture comparable time-series of collisions and number of objects as predicted by DAMAGE in several scenarios. Further, and perhaps more importantly, its speed and flexibility allows the user to explore and understand the evolution of the space debris environment.

No abstract