The following salient events and trends are reported upon in greater depth in the State of the Climate in 2017, the supplement to this issue of BAMS. Figures shown here are drawn from the supplement and are not cited in the text below. warmest annual global temperature since records began in the mid-to late 1800s and makes it the warmest non-El Niño year on record, as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions were neutral through much of 2017, with weak La Niña conditions at the start and end. The four warmest years on record have occurred since 2014. Above Earth's surface, the annual globally averaged lower-tropospheric temperature (the bulk atmosphere below 10-km altitude) in 2017 was, depending on the dataset, 0.38° to 0.58°C above the 1981-2010 mean. This was a decrease of more than 0.1°C from the 2016 record-high level. Similarly, the 2017 globally averaged lower stratospheric temperature was 0.2°C greater than its record-low 2016 value but still below normal, with an anomaly of approximately −0.4°C (variation among datasets was ± 0.2°C). The year saw a wide swing of precipitation extremes, with some areas experiencing remarkable tropical and post-tropical cyclone precipitation, while others were affected by extended droughts. After a significant peak in global drought area in 2016, the drought area fell sharply in early 2017 before rising to above-average values once again later in the year. At least 3% of the land area was affected by extreme drought conditions in each month of 2017, and this is the fourth greatest monthly percentage of severe drought since 1950 (after 1984, 1985, and 2016). Severe drought conditions in British Columbia, Canada, contributed to its most extensive wildfire season on record. On the high end of the precipita-GLOBAL CLIMATE. The dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-increased once again in 2017, reaching new record highs. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface for 2017 was 405.0 ± 0.1 ppm. This was 2.2 ppm greater than 2016 amounts and was the highest in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800,000 years. The global growth rate of carbon dioxide has nearly quadrupled since the early 1960s. The rise in globally averaged levels of methane from 2016 to 2017 was 6.9 ± 0.9 ppb, and the mean global atmospheric nitrous oxide levels rose 0.9 ppb from 2016 to 2017. Both increases were comparable to the average yearly growth rate of each gas over the last 10 years. Global surface temperatures were 0.38°-0.48°C above the 1981-2010 average, depending upon the dataset used. This places 2017 as the second or third
A series of webinars and panel discussions were conducted on the topic of the evolving role of humans in weather prediction and communication, in recognition of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the AMS. One main theme that arose was the inevitability that new tools using artificial intelligence will improve data analysis, forecasting, and communication. We discussed what tools are being created, how they are being created, and how the tools will potentially affect various duties for operational meteorologists in multiple sectors of the profession. Even as artificial intelligence increases automation, humans will remain a vital part of the forecast process as that process changes over time. Additionally, both university training and professional development must be revised to accommodate the evolving forecasting process, including addressing the need for computing and data skills (including artificial intelligence and visualization), probabilistic and ensemble forecasting, decision support, and communication skills. These changing skill sets necessitate that both the U.S. government’s Meteorologist General Schedule-1340 requirements and the AMS standards for a bachelor’s degree need to be revised. Seven recommendations are presented for student and forecaster preparation and career planning, highlighting the need for students and operational meteorologists to be flexible life-long learners, acquire new skills, and be engaged in the changes to forecast technology in order to best serve the user community throughout their careers. The article closes with our vision for the ways that humans can maintain an essential role in weather prediction and communication, highlighting the interdependent relationship between computers and humans.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.