Addresses both fundamental and applied aspects of ocean waves including the use of wave observations made from satellites. More specifically it describes the WAM model, its scientific basis, its actual implementation, and its many applications. This model has been developed by an international group (the Wave Modelling group), and is based on a detailed physical description of air/sea interactions. It is widely used for wave forecasting for meteorological and oceanographic purposes. The three sections of the volume describe the basic statistical theory and the relevant physical processes; the numerical model and its global and regional applications; and satellite observations, their interpretation and use in data assimilation. Written by leading experts, it is a comprehensive guide and reference for researchers and advanced students in physical oceanography, meteorology, fluid dynamics, coastal engineering and physics.

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A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

Abstract. The ERA (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis) project resulted in a homogeneous data set describing the atmosphere over a time span of 15 years, from 1979 to 1993. To validate (part of) these data against independent observations we use the ERA surface winds to drive the WAM wave model. The modeled significant wave heights are then compared with observations. From this comparison the quality of the fbrcing winds is assessed. The patterns of computed wave heights agree well with observed patterns, and they are of the right magnitude. This confirms the realistic nature of the ERA winds. If one looks in detail, it appears that the significant wave heights resulting from the model are systematically lower than the observed ones in areas of high winds and waves and higher in areas of low winds and waves. It is argued that underestimation at high winds speeds is •nost likely a resolution effect, as wind and thus wave peaks are missed by finite resolution in space and time, while overestimation at low wind speeds most likely results from internal WAM errors. It is concluded that the monthly mean ERA winds are slightly (less than 5%) too low in areas of high winds, while from this study it is not, possible to draw a decisive conclusion on the quality of ERA winds at low wind speeds. At the same time, the hindcast data form a 15-year climatology of global waves. This climatology is analyzed in terms of annual cycle and trends. The largest trends in significant wave height occur in the North Atlantic with an increase of more than 12 cm/yr in January, and south of Africa where the increasing trend exceeds 7 cm/yr in July. These trends, however, are only marginally significant. Furthermore, they exhibit a large month-to-month variability, so that on a seasonal basis the trends are significant only in small parts of the ocean. In conclusion, we are unable to confirm a significant change in wave height during the ERA period.