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This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art on models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly the same in order to compare two models (this fact makes it almost impossible to carry out a quantitative comparison between a huge number of models and methods). In place of a quantitative description, a qualitative approach is preferred for this review, remarking the contribution (and innovative aspect) of each model. On the basis of the review, some topics for future research are pointed out.

[1] Mineral dust in the atmosphere is an important component of the climate system but is poorly quantified. The Bodélé Depression of northern Chad stands out as the world's greatest source region of mineral dust into the atmosphere. Frequent dust plumes are a distinguishing feature of the region's climate. There is a need for more detailed information on processes of dust emission/transport and dust optical properties to inform model simulations of this source. During the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005, instrumentation was deployed to measure dust properties and boundary layer meteorology. Observations indicate that dust emission events are triggered when near-surface wind speeds exceed 10 ms À1 , associated with synoptic-scale variability in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Dust emission pulses in phase with the diurnal cycle of near-surface winds. Analysis of dust samples shows that the dust consists predominantly of fragments of diatomite sediment. The particle size distribution of this diatomite dust estimated from sun photometer data, using a modified Aeronet retrieval algorithm, indicates a dominant coarse mode (radius centered on 1-2 mm) similar to other Saharan dust observations. Single-scattering albedo values are high, broadly in line with other Saharan dust even though the diatomite composition of dust from the Bodélé is likely to be unusual. The radiative impact of high dust loadings results in a reduction in surface daytime maximum temperature of around 7°C in the Bodélé region. Using optical and physical properties of dust obtained in the field, we estimate the total dust flux emitted from the Bodélé to be 1.18 ± 0.45 Tg per day during a substantial dust event. We speculate that the Bodélé Depression ($10,800 km 2 ) may be responsible for between 6-18% of global dust emissions, although the uncertainty in both the Bodélé and global estimates remains high.

The low-level jet (LLJ) over the Bodélé depression in northern Chad is a newly identified feature. Strong LLJ events are responsible for the emission of large quantities of mineral dust from the depression, the world's largest single dust source, and its subsequent transport to West Africa, the tropical Atlantic, and beyond. Accurate simulation of this key dust-generating atmospheric feature is, therefore, an important requirement for dust models. The objectives of the present study are (i) to evaluate the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) and global analyses/reanalyses to represent this feature, and (ii) to determine the driving mechanisms of the LLJ and its strong diurnal cycle. Observational data obtained during the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx 2005) are utilized for comparison. When suitably configured, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) RCM can represent very accurately many of the key features of the jet including the structure, diurnal cycle, and day-to-day variability. Surface winds are also well reproduced, including the peak winds, which activate dust emission. Model fidelity is, however, strongly dependent on the boundary layer parameterization scheme, surface roughness, and vertical resolution in the lowest layers. A model horizontal resolution of a few tens of kilometers is sufficient to resolve most of the key features of the LLJ, while in global analyses/reanalyses many features of the LLJ are not adequately represented. Idealized RCM simulations indicate that under strong synoptic forcing the surrounding orography of the Tibesti and Ennedi Mountains acts to focus the LLJ onto the Bodélé and to accelerate the jet by ϳ40%. From the RCM experiments it is diagnosed that the pronounced diurnal cycle of the Bodélé LLJ is largely a result of varying eddy viscosity, with elevated heating/cooling over the Tibesti Mountains to the north as a second-order contribution.

The Bodélé Depression, Chad is the planet's largest single source of dust. Deflation from the Bodélé could be seen as a simple coincidence of two key prerequisites: strong surface winds and a large source of suitable sediment. But here we hypothesise that long term links between topography, winds, deflation and dust ensure the maintenance of the dust source such that these two apparently coincidental key ingredients are connected by land-atmosphere processes with topography acting as the overall controlling agent. We use a variety of observational and numerical techniques, including a regional climate model, to show that: 1) contemporary deflation from the Bodélé is delineated by topography and a surface wind stress maximum; 2) the Tibesti and Ennedi mountains play a key role in the generation of the erosive winds in the form of the Bodélé Low Level Jet (LLJ); 3) enhanced deflation from a stronger Bodélé LLJ during drier phases, for example, the Last Glacial Maximum, was probably sufficient to create the shallow lake in which diatoms lived during wetter phases, such as the Holocene pluvial. Winds may therefore have helped to create the depression in which erodible diatom material accumulated. Instead of a simple coincidence of nature, dust from the world's largest source may result from the operation of long term processes on paleo timescales which have led to ideal conditions for dust generation in the world's largest dust source. Similar processes plausibly operate in other dust hotspots in topographic depressions