Background: Proportional hazards (PH) is an assumption often made by researchers, despite evidence of nonproportionality in a significant proportion of clinical trials. In the presence of non-PH, the interpretation of hazard ratios, medians, and landmark survival as summary measures of treatment effect can become problematic. Several recent studies have recommended restricted mean survival time (RMST) as an alternative metric for survival analysis, particularly where non-PH may apply. Objectives: To determine the current approaches of health technology assessment (HTA) agencies to value assessment in the presence of non-PH, and the extent to which RMST is accepted as an alternative measure of treatment benefit. Methods: Methodological guidelines published by 10 HTA agencies were reviewed to establish recommended approaches for presenting survival benefit from clinical trials. Published HTA reports for 23 oncology agents approved by the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency since 2014 were reviewed to determine how guidelines are implemented in practice and identify instances where the PH assumption was tested and RMST analyses reported. Results: Testing for non-PH is not widely incorporated into HTA except by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. RMST is used infrequently but has been used in a number of countries, particularly by agencies that focus on cost effectiveness. Conclusions: HTA agencies vary in their approaches to non-PH. Most do not routinely check the PH assumption. RMST has played a role in assessing clinical benefit within HTA, although not consistently within countries (across drugs) or across countries (for the same drug).
6606 Background: Current value frameworks (VFs) assess clinical value primarily through using clinical trial endpoints as survival metrics (e.g., median and hazard ratio (HR)). But, if key assumptions do not hold, the interpretation of these summary statistics can become problematic and fail to adequately capture the expected benefit to a patient. This has been observed with innovative oncology treatments. As a proof of concept analysis, we reviewed how two VFs (ASCO and ESMO) dealt with cases where the assumption of proportional hazards (PH) does not hold. Methods: Oncology agents approved by the FDA since 2011 were reviewed and three agents were identified with survival profiles where the assumption of PH was found not to hold because, on visual inspection, the survival curves displayed non-standard patterns: Divergence followed by convergence – panobinostat OS in RRMM; Curves initially track together then diverge – nivolumab OS in NSCLC; Curves diverge steadily then a plateau emerged in the active treatment curve – pembrolizumab PFS in refractory melanoma. We evaluated these agents to assess which measures of clinical benefit were most valued under each VF and how the issue of non-PH influenced the outcome. Results: Clinical benefit/value scores varied: ASCO: 14-27 (maximum 100), ESMO: grade 1-3. The ASCO VF uses a hierarchical approach (incorporating HR and median survival benefit, always prioritising the former) adding a bonus for survival benefit in the tail of the distribution. The combination of HR, median survival benefit 2 and 3 year survival rates in the ESMO non-curative VF can potentially capture aspects of clinical benefit in some cases of non-PH. Overall, the ASCO VF appears less flexible to accommodate non-PH than the ESMO VF. Conclusions: Despite VFs using summary statistics which cannot be easily interpreted under conditions of non-PH, the case of non-PH is not explicitly catered for. Additionally, both VFs may miss important interpretation where value is differentiated across patients groups with different response profiles which may underlie non-standard survival curves. In these situations, a more flexible approach to assessing clinical value may render VFs more relevant for clinical decision making.
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