Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.

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A bioenergetics model is implemented for European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and applied to the north-eastern Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean Sea). The model reproduces the growth of anchovy in a one-way linked configuration with a lower trophic level (LTL) ecosystem model. The LTL model provides densities for three zooplankton functional groups (heterotrophic flagellates, microzooplankton and mesozooplankton) which serve as available energy via consumption for the anchovy model. Our model follows the basic structure of NEMURO.FISH type models (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography for Including Saury and Herring). Several model parameters were specific for the Mediterranean or the Black Sea anchovy and some others were adopted from related species and NEM-URO.FISH due to lack of biological information on E. encrasicolus. Simulation results showed that the fastest growth rate occurs during spring and the slowest growth rate from August to December. Zooplankton abundance during autumn was low implying that decreased prey density lead to a reduction in anchovy weight, especially for the age-3 class. Feeding parameters were adjusted to adequately fit the model growth estimates to available weight-at-age data. A detailed sensitivity analyses is conducted to evaluate the importance of the biological processes (consumption, respiration, egestion, specific dynamic action, excretion and egg production) and their parameters to fish growth. The most sensitive parameters were the intercept and exponent slope of the weight-dependent consumption and respiration process equations. Fish weight was fairly sensitive to temperature-dependent parameters.

The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.

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