The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer has surveyed the entire sky at four infrared wavelengths with greatly improved sensitivity and spatial resolution compared to its predecessors, the Infrared Astronomical Satellite and the Cosmic
We assess the risk of an Earth impact for asteroid (99942) Apophis by means of a statistical analysis accounting for the uncertainty of both the orbital solution and the Yarkovsky effect. We select those observations with either rigorous uncertainty information provided by the observer or a high established accuracy. For the Yarkovsky effect we perform a Monte Carlo simulation that fully accounts for the uncertainty in the physical characterization, especially for the unknown spin orientation. By mapping the uncertainty information onto the 2029 b-plane and identifying the keyholes corresponding to subsequent impacts we assess the impact risk for future encounters. In particular, we find an impact probability greater than 10 −6 for an impact in 2068. We analyze the stability of the impact probability with respect to the assumptions on Apophis' physical characterization and consider the possible effect of the early 2013 radar apparition.
We present initial results from observations and numerical analyses aimed at characterizing the main-belt comet P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS). Optical monitoring observations were made between 2012 October and 2013 February using the University of Hawaii 2.2 m telescope, the Keck I telescope, the Baade and Clay Magellan telescopes, Faulkes Telescope South, the Perkins Telescope at Lowell Observatory, and the Southern Astrophysical Research Telescope. The object's intrinsic brightness approximately doubles from the time of its discovery in early October until mid-November and then decreases by ∼60% between late December and early February, similar to photometric behavior exhibited by several other main-belt comets and unlike that exhibited by disrupted asteroid (596) Scheila. We also used Keck to conduct spectroscopic searches for CN emission as well as absorption at 0.7 μm that could indicate the presence of hydrated minerals, finding an upper limit CN production rate of Q CN < 1.5 × 10 23 mol s −1 , from which we infer a water production rate of Q H 2 O < 5 × 10 25 mol s −1 , and no evidence of the presence of hydrated minerals. Numerical simulations indicate that P/2012 T1 is largely dynamically stable for >100 Myr and is unlikely to be a recently implanted interloper from the outer solar system, while a search for potential asteroid family associations reveals that it is dynamically linked to the ∼155 Myr old Lixiaohua asteroid family.
We report the direct detection of radiation pressure on the asteroid 2009 BD, one of the smallest multi-opposition near-Earth objects currently known, with H ~ 28.4. Under the purely gravitational model of NEODyS the object is currently considered a possible future impactor, with impact solutions starting in 2071. The detection of a radiation-related acceleration allows us to estimate an Area to Mass Ratio (AMR) for the object, that can be converted (under some assumptions) into a range of possible values for its average density. Our result AMR = (2.97 \pm 0.33) x 10^(-4) m^2 kg^(-1) is compatible with the object being of natural origin, and it is narrow enough to exclude a man-made nature. The possible origin of this object, its future observability, and the importance of radiation pressure in the impact monitoring process, are also discussed.Comment: To be submitted for refereed publication. Preliminary analysis based on the 2009-2010 data, published on arXiv because of the current observability window of the targe
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