Abstract. New burned area datasets and top-down constraints from atmospheric concentration measurements of pyrogenic gases have decreased the large uncertainty in fire emissions estimates. However, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural waste, and peat fires to total global fire emissions. Here we used a revised version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model and improved satellite-derived estimates of area burned, fire activity, and plant productivity to calculate fire emissions for the 1997–2009 period on a 0.5° spatial resolution with a monthly time step. For November 2000 onwards, estimates were based on burned area, active fire detections, and plant productivity from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. For the partitioning we focused on the MODIS era. We used burned area estimates based on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) active fire data prior to MODIS (1997–2000) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) derived estimates of plant productivity during the same period. Average global fire carbon emissions were 2.0 Pg yr−1 with significant interannual variability during 1997–2001 (2.8 Pg yr−1 in 1998 and 1.6 Pg yr−1 in 2001). Emissions during 2002–2007 were relatively constant (around 2.1 Pg yr−1) before declining in 2008 (1.7 Pg yr−1) and 2009 (1.5 Pg yr−1) partly due to lower deforestation fire emissions in South America and tropical Asia. During 2002–2007, emissions were highly variable from year-to-year in many regions, including in boreal Asia, South America, and Indonesia, but these regional differences cancelled out at a global level. During the MODIS era (2001–2009), most fire carbon emissions were from fires in grasslands and savannas (44%) with smaller contributions from tropical deforestation and degradation fires (20%), woodland fires (mostly confined to the tropics, 16%), forest fires (mostly in the extratropics, 15%), agricultural waste burning (3%), and tropical peat fires (3%). The contribution from agricultural waste fires was likely a lower bound because our approach for measuring burned area could not detect all of these relatively small fires. For reduced trace gases such as CO and CH4, deforestation, degradation, and peat fires were more important contributors because of higher emissions of reduced trace gases per unit carbon combusted compared to savanna fires. Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation, degradation, and peatland fires were on average 0.5 Pg C yr−1. The carbon emissions from these fires may not be balanced by regrowth following fire. Our results provide the first global assessment of the contribution of different sources to total global fire emissions for the past decade, and supply the community with an improved 13-year fire emissions time series.

Abstract. The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (~biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (T-D, exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories, and data-driven approaches (B-U, including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003–2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by T-D inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range [540–568]). About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range [50–65 %]). B-U approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr−1 [596–884]) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the T-D budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the B-U approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from T-D emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (~64 % of the global budget,

[1] The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts land surface model has been extended to include a carbon dioxide module. This relates photosynthesis to radiation, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, soil moisture, and temperature. Furthermore, it has the option of deriving a canopy resistance from photosynthesis and providing it as a stomatal control to the transpiration formulation. Ecosystem respiration is based on empirical relations dependent on temperature, soil moisture, snow depth, and land use. The CO 2 model is designed for the numerical weather prediction (NWP) environment where it benefits from good quality meteorological input (i.e., radiation, temperature, and soil moisture). This paper describes the CO 2 model formulation and the way it is optimized making use of off-line simulations for a full year of tower observations at 34 sites. The model is then evaluated against the same observations for a different year. A correlation coefficient of 0.65 is obtained between model simulations and observations based on 10 day averaged CO 2 fluxes. For sensible and latent heat fluxes there is a correlation coefficient of 0.80. To study the impact on atmospheric CO 2 , coupled integrations are performed for the 2003 to 2008 period. The global atmospheric growth is well reproduced. The simulated interannual variability is shown to reproduce the observationally based estimates with a correlation coefficient of 0.70. The main conclusions are (i) the simple carbon dioxide model is highly suitable for the numerical weather prediction environment where environmental factors are controlled by data assimilation, (ii) the use of a carbon dioxide model for stomatal control has a positive impact on evapotranspiration, and (iii) even using a climatological leaf area index, the interannual variability of the global atmospheric CO 2 budget is well reproduced due to the interannual variability in the meteorological forcing (i.e., radiation, precipitation, temperature, humidity, and soil moisture) despite the simplified or missing processes. This highlights the importance of meteorological forcing but also cautions the use of such a simple model for process attribution.

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. Based on energy statistics, we estimate that the global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production were 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, 3.0 percent above 2010 levels. We project these emissions will increase by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of Gross World Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. Global net CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change, including deforestation, are more difficult to update annually because of data availability, but combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation and models suggests those net emissions were 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and reached 391.38 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011, increasing 1.70 ± 0.09 ppm yr−1 or 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 in 2011. Estimates from four ocean models suggest that the ocean CO2 sink was 2.6 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, implying a global residual terrestrial CO2 sink of 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future. All carbon data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_V2012).

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