Sand production is a critical problem that causes the industry spending over $3.0 Billion U.S. per year (70% of the wells worldwide have this problem). To mitigate the impact, many operators choose the option of deploying technologies to exclude the sand, and usually reduce the benefits for decrease a risk not quantified. Currently the reservoirs trending to sand production contain an increasing percentage of the world's hydrocarbon reserves. Many of the wells that exploit these resources are producing beyond the limits of their originally estimated useful life, which can result in weak formations. Consequently, it is required being more demanding in the profit margins of the projects of Management and / or sand control achieved at these reservoirs, so it requires a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) in them, taking into account that the risk and uncertainty are two factors that are often present. This analysis facilitates decision making and allows determine the best Completion and production strategy of the formations sensitive at sand production. Based on the above, this work focuses on developing a methodology for probabilistic risk analysis to evaluate management alternatives and / or exclusion of sand using Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology includes six phases: (1) Selection of alternatives to evaluate and definition of the conditions of production of each one, (2) Structuring the deterministic model of each alternative (3) identification of most impacting variables on the level of production of each alternative and determination of its range of typical behavior (4) Estimation of probability distributions of production for each variable, (5) Monte Carlo simulation for risk assessment of each alternative and selecting the best choice. The methodology was applied to evaluate management alternatives and / or exclusion of sand in the formations sensitive to sand production of the fields: Lisama, Llanito, Galan, Brisas and Yarigui-Cantagallo in Colombia and was compared with the results of the evaluation when using deterministic models. In this paper is present the Application cases in the wells: Lisama 171 and Yarigui 168. Finally, the main findings, conclusions and recommendations obtained in this study are shown.

One of the most common problems during the hydrocarbon production is sand production. Efficient control of the sand production without causing formation damage will depend on the knowledge that we have of the reservoir and also of the designs and estimates that we make during the drilling, completion and production. Sand production causes many problems ranging from collapses in casing, failures of subsurface equipment and surface facilities and accumulation in downhole generating continuous interventions, up to the point of making unproductive wells, thus putting in risk the future interventions of the wells and the capacity thereof in the long term. In the oil industry there is a diverse range of technologies to control and / or exclusion of sand in open hole and / or case hole that can be mechanicals or chemicals, but the selection must be done carefully, taking into account granulometric and mineralogical criteria for proper selection, because although that we choose the best alternative technique and do a good sand control, the solution may not be optimal from the economic standpoint. A good decision making process considers other alternatives for sand control, such as handling the drawdown pressure, which in some cases proves to be a technical and economic alternative, especially when the critical drawdown pressure (CDP) presents values over 40% of the reservoir pressure. A geomechanics evaluation establishes the predictive model of sand production, which allows us to determine the critical drawdown Pressure. From density logs, Vsh, sonic logs, etc. and correlations, the compressive strength (UCS), cohesion, angle of internal friction and mechanical properties of the rock (Young modulus, Poisson's ratio, etc.) are determined. With a geomechanical model (previously selected and evaluated with field and laboratory data), the pressure gradient and the mechanical properties of the rock, the predictive model of sand production is established. This study was conducted in the fields: Lisama, Galán, Llanito, Yarigui, Cantagallo and Bonanza in Colombia. This article presents the case study in the well Lisama 166, where the drawdown management became a technical and economic alternative for sand control. Finally, conclusions and recommendations obtained in this study are shown.