No abstract

The management of COVID-19 appears to be a long-term challenge, even in countries that have managed to suppress the epidemic after their initial outbreak. In this paper, we propose a model predictive approach for the constrained control of a nonlinear compartmental model that captures the key dynamical properties of COVID-19. The control design uses the discrete-time version of the epidemic model, and it is able to handle complex, possibly time-dependent constraints, logical relations between model variables and multiple predefined discrete levels of interventions. A state observer is also constructed for the computation of non-measured variables from the number of hospitalized patients. Five control scenarios with different cost functions and constraints are studied through numerical simulations, including an output feedback configuration with uncertain parameters. It is visible from the results that, depending on the cost function associated with different policy aims, the obtained controls correspond to mitigation and suppression strategies, and the constructed control inputs are similar to real-life government responses. The results also clearly show the key importance of early intervention, the continuous tracking of the susceptible population and that of future work in determining the true costs of restrictive control measures and their quantitative effects.

Reversibility, weak reversibility and deficiency, detailed and complex balancing are generally not "encoded" in the kinetic differential equations but they are realization properties that may imply local or even global asymptotic stability of the underlying reaction kinetic system when further conditions are also fulfilled. In this paper, efficient numerical procedures are given for finding complex balanced or detailed balanced realizations of mass action type chemical reaction networks or kinetic dynamical systems in the framework of linear programming. The procedures are illustrated on numerical examples.