The objective was to assess by simulation the efficacy of population structure analysis in plant breeding. Twelve populations and 300 inbred lines were simulated and genotyped using 100 microsatellite loci. The experimental material included populations with and without admixture, ancestry relationship and linkage disequilibrium, and with distinct levels of genetic differentiation and effective sizes. The analyses were performed using Structure software and employed all available models. For all the group number (K) tested, for both populations and inbred lines, the admixture model with correlated allelic frequencies provided the highest value for the logarithm of the marginal likelihood. Fitting appropriate model and using adequate sample size for individuals and markers, Structure was effective in identifying the correct population structure, migrants and individuals with genome from distinct populations. The linkage model did not result in an improvement in clustering relative to the admixture model with correlated allelic frequencies. The inclusion of prior information did not change the results; for some K values the analyses showed slight higher values of the marginal likelihood. The reduction in the number of individuals and markers negatively affected the results. There was a high variation in the most probable K value between the evaluated methods.

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Reciprocal recurrent selection (RRS) has been successfully applied to maize breeding for more than 60 years. Our objective was to assess the relative efficiency of the genotypic value and the effects of general and specific combining abilities (GCA and SCA) on selection. The GCA effect reflects the number of favorable genes in the parent. The SCA effect primarily reflects the differences in the gene frequencies between the parents. We simulated three traits, three classes of populations, and 10 cycles of half- and full-sib RRS. The RRS is a highly efficient process for intra- and interpopulation breeding, regardless of the trait or the level of divergence among the populations. The RRS increases the heterosis of the interpopulation cross when there is dominance, and it decreases the inbreeding depression in the populations and the genetic variability in the populations and in the hybrid. When there is not dominance and the populations are not divergent, the RRS also determines population differentiation. The half-sib RRS, which is equivalent to selection based on the GCA effect, is more efficient than the full-sib RRS based on the genotypic value, regardless of the trait or the level of improvement of the populations. The full-sib RRS based on the SCA effect is not efficient for intra- and interpopulation breeding.

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Resumo -Os objetivos deste trabalho foram estimar os parâmetros de adaptabilidade e estabilidade em populações de milho-pipoca relacionadas por ciclos de seleção, inferir sobre a eficiência dos métodos de seleção pelos quais as populações foram obtidas e avaliar os efeitos da seleção sobre os parâmetros de adaptabilidade e estabilidade. Vinte e cinco populações e três testemunhas comerciais foram avaliadas em 14 ensaios realizados nos anos agrícolas de 2003/2004, 2004/2005, 2006/2007, 2008/2009 e 2009/2010, em Adaptability and stability of popcorn populations related through selection cyclesAbstract -The objectives of this work were to estimate the adaptability and stability parameters of popcorn populations related through cycles of selection, to infer about the efficiency of the selection methods by which the populations were obtained and to assess the effects of selection on the parameters of adaptability and stability. Twenty-five populations and three commercial controls were evaluated in 14 trials carried out in the 2003/2004, 2004/2005, 2006/2007, 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 growing seasons, in seven locations. The experimental design used was randomized complete blocks with four replicates. The expansion volume, evaluated in a microwave oven and in the Metric Weight Volume Tester (MWVT), as well as grain yield were analyzed. The Eberhart & Russell adaptability and stability method was used. In general the initial and improved populations showed predictable performance in response to changes in the environment. Selection can cause changes in the adaptability and stability patterns, and the different selection strategies performed in order to obtain the populations showed similar efficiencies.