Remote sensing observations and climate models indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the late 1990s, mostly due to enhanced surface melting from rising summer temperatures. However, in situ observational records of GrIS melt rates over recent decades are rare. Here we develop a record of frozen meltwater in the west GrIS percolation zone preserved in seven firn cores. Quantifying ice layer distribution as a melt feature percentage (MFP), we find significant increases in MFP in the southernmost five cores over the past 50 years to unprecedented modern levels (since 1550 CE). Annual to decadal changes in summer temperatures and MFP are closely tied to changes in Greenland summer blocking activity and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures since 1870. However, summer warming of ~1.2°C since 1870–1900, in addition to warming attributable to recent sea surface temperature and blocking variability, is a critical driver of high modern MFP levels.

Abstract. The mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in a warming climate is of critical interest to scientists and the general public in the context of future sea-level rise. An improved understanding of temporal and spatial variability of snow accumulation will reduce uncertainties in GrIS mass balance models and improve projections of Greenland's contribution to sea-level rise, currently estimated at 0.089 ± 0.03 m by 2100. Here we analyze 25 NASA Operation IceBridge accumulation radar flights totaling  >  17 700 km from 2013 to 2014 to determine snow accumulation in the GrIS dry snow and percolation zones over the past 100–300 years. IceBridge accumulation rates are calculated and used to validate accumulation rates from three regional climate models. Averaged over all 25 flights, the RMS difference between the models and IceBridge accumulation is between 0.023 ± 0.019 and 0.043 ± 0.029 m w.e. a−1, although each model shows significantly larger differences from IceBridge accumulation on a regional basis. In the southeast region, for example, the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MARv3.5.2) overestimates by an average of 20.89 ± 6.75 % across the drainage basin. Our results indicate that these regional differences between model and IceBridge accumulation are large enough to significantly alter GrIS surface mass balance estimates. Empirical orthogonal function analysis suggests that the first two principal components account for 33 and 19 % of the variance, and correlate with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. Regions that disagree strongest with climate models are those in which we have the fewest IceBridge data points, requiring additional in situ measurements to verify model uncertainties.

Abstract. The mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in a warming climate is of critical interest to scientists and the general public in the context of future sea-level rise. An improved understanding of temporal and spatial variability of snow accumulation will reduce uncertainties in GIS mass balance models and improve projections of Greenland's contribution to sea-level rise, currently estimated at 0.089 ± 0.03 m by 2100. Here we analyze 25 NASA Operation IceBridge Accumulation Radar flights totaling > 17 700 km from 2013–2014 to determine snow accumulation in the GIS dry snow and percolation zones over the past 100–300 years. IceBridge accumulation rates are calculated and used to validate accumulation rates from three regional climate models. Averaged over all 25 flights, the RMS difference between the models and IceBridge accumulation is between 0.037 ± 0.022 and 0.064 ± 0.033 m w.e. a−1, although each model shows significantly larger differences from IceBridge accumulation on a regional basis. In the central northern region, for example, the Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel (RACMO2) underestimates by 26.9 ± 4.5 %, while in the southeast region the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) overestimates by as much as 35.5 ± 6.8 %. Our results indicate that these regional differences between model and IceBridge accumulation are large enough to significantly alter GIS surface mass balance estimates. Empirical orthogonality function analysis suggests that the first two principal components account for 33 % and 18 % of the variance and correlate with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. From 1976–2014 accumulation increased over most of the ice sheet's interior, consistent with the response to a positive AMO trend over this period. Regions that disagree strongest with climate models are those in which we have the fewest IceBridge data points, requiring additional in situ measurements to verify model uncertainties.

Abstract. The mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in a warming climate is of critical interest in the context of future sea level rise. Increased melting in the GrIS percolation zone due to atmospheric warming over the past several decades has led to increased mass loss at lower elevations. Previous studies have hypothesized that this warming is accompanied by a precipitation increase, as would be expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship, compensating for some of the melt-induced mass loss throughout the western GrIS. This study tests that hypothesis by calculating snow accumulation rates and trends across the western GrIS percolation zone, providing new accumulation rate estimates in regions with sparse in situ data or data that do not span the recent accelerating surface melt. We present accumulation records from sixteen 22–32 m long firn cores and 4436 km of ground-penetrating radar, covering the past 20–60 years of accumulation, collected across the western GrIS percolation zone as part of the Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) project. Trends from both radar and firn cores, as well as commonly used regional climate models, show decreasing accumulation rates of 2.4±1.5 % a−1 over the 1996–2016 period, which we attribute to shifting storm tracks related to stronger atmospheric summer blocking over Greenland. Changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 20 years, specifically anomalously strong summertime blocking, have reduced GrIS surface mass balance through both an increase in surface melting and a decrease in accumulation rates.

Abstract. The mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in a warming climate is of critical interest to scientists and the general public in the context of future sea-level rise. Increased melting in the GrIS percolation zone due to atmospheric warming over the past several decades has led to increased mass loss at lower elevations. Previous studies have hypothesized that this warming is accompanied by a precipitation increase, as would be expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, negating some of the melt-induced mass loss throughout the Western GrIS. This study tests that hypothesis by calculating snow accumulation rates and trends across the Western GrIS percolation zone, providing new critical accumulation estimates in regions with sparse and/or dated in situ data for calibration of future regional climate models. We present accumulation records from sixteen 22–32 m long firn cores and 4436 km of ground penetrating-radar, covering the past 20–60 years of accumulation, collected across the Western GrIS percolation zone as part of the Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) project. Trends from both radar and firn cores, as well as commonly used regional climate models, show decreasing accumulation and precipitation over the 1996–2016 period, which we attribute to shifting storm-tracks related to stronger atmospheric summer blocking over Greenland. Changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 20 years, specifically anomalously high summertime blocking, have reduced GrIS surface mass balance through both an increase in surface melting and a decrease in accumulation.