A subset of climate simulations of the 20th century from the IPCC‐AR4 is analyzed to assess the ability of these models to reproduce the observed climatological seasonal precipitation in South America during the period 1970–1999. Changes of the model climatology in a climate change scenario (SRESA1b) for the period 2070–2099 are also discussed. Results show that models are able to reproduce the main features of the precipitation seasonal cycle over South America, although the precipitation in the SACZ region and the precipitation maximum over southeastern South America observed during the cold season are not well‐ represented. There is a general consensus among models that the precipitation changes projected are mainly: i) an increase of summer precipitation over southeastern subtropical South America; ii) a reduction of winter precipitation over most of the continent; and iii) reduction of precipitation in all seasons along the southern Andes.

[1] The relation between the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and the precipitation in southeastern South America (SESA) is examined. The AAO influence is particularly strong during winter and late spring although of opposite sign. In particular during spring, AAO positive (negative) phases are associated with the intensification of an upper-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly, weakened (enhanced) moisture convergence and decreased (increased) precipitation over SESA. The combined influence of both ENSO and AAO on SESA precipitation was also explored and significant correlation values between both oscillations are only observed during spring. Results show that during that particular season, AAO activity produces a strong modulation of the ENSO signal on SESA precipitation.

The temporal stability of the southern annular mode (SAM) impacts on Southern Hemisphere climate during austral spring is analyzed. Results show changes in the typical hemispheric circulation pattern associated with SAM, particularly over South America and Australia, between the 1960s-70s and 1980s-90s. In the first decades, the SAM positive phase is associated with an anomalous anticyclonic circulation developed in the southwestern subtropical Atlantic that enhances moisture advection and promotes precipitation increase over southeastern South America (SESA). On the other hand, during the last decades the anticyclonic anomaly induced by the SAM's positive phase covers most of southern South America and the adjacent Atlantic, producing weakened moisture convergence and decreased precipitation over SESA as well as positive temperature anomaly advection over southern South America.Some stations in the Australia-New Zealand sector and Africa exhibit significant correlations between the SAM and precipitation anomalies in both or one of the subperiods, but they do not characterize a consistent area in which the SAM signal can be certainly determined. Significant changes of SAM influence on temperature anomalies on multidecadal time scales are observed elsewhere. Particularly over the Australia-New Zealand sector, significant positive correlations during the first decades become insignificant or even negative in the later period, whereas changes of opposite sign occur in the Antarctic Peninsula between both subperiods.