This paper empirically examines South Africa’s fiscal sustainability through a Markov-switching model which utilizes quarterly datasets for the period from 1960 to 2019. The results show that public debt responds positively, demonstrating a sustainable fiscal policy. Furthermore, considering the regime-specific feedback coefficients of the fiscal policy rule and the durations of fiscal regimes, the study finds that South Africa’s fiscal policy satisfies the No-Ponzi game condition. Therefore, from a policy perspective, the South African government should take measures such as pension reforms, reducing operational expenses, reducing subsidies, and funding micro and small enterprises to gain the double dividend on the expenditure side along with revenue-enhancing measures on consumption taxes to achieve stable public finances and lower debt levels.
This study examines the response of private consumption and private investment to an exogenous shock of fiscal policy and estimates the size of fiscal multipliers during periods of economic slacks and positive output gap. Panel vector autoregressive (VAR) estimation technique is performed on a sample of 18 Sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 2000–2018. The study finds that the output’s fiscal impact multiplier is larger during contractions than during expansion. Furthermore, in contractions, the fiscal multipliers are 0.06% for private consumption and 0.6% for private investment. Meanwhile, in expansions, they are −0.03 for private consumption and −0.04% for private investment. The findings of this study are consistent with the results of previous studies predicting Keynesian views. Thus, to earn sizable, persistent, and long‐lasting effects through fiscal policy, this study recommends that spending programs should account for countercyclical fiscal policy and consider consumption and investment decisions before implementation. Moreover, the fiscal spending interventions tend to target rule‐of‐thumb households and financially constrained firms.
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