SUMMARY Background Optimal management of clinically localized prostate cancer presents unique challenges because of its highly variable and often indolent natural history. To predict disease aggressiveness, clinicians combine clinical parameters to create prognostic models, but the accuracy of current models is very limited. There is significant clinical need for biomarkers that improve our ability to predict disease outcome. Methods Using quantitative RT-PCR on RNA from formalin fixed paraffin-embedded tumour samples, we measured the expression level of 31 genes involved in cell cycle progression (CCP genes), created a predefined score and evaluated its ability to predict disease outcome. The signature was tested in a retrospective cohort of 366 patients from the U.S. who had undergone radical prostatectomy, and in a retrospective cohort of 337 men with clinically localized prostate cancer diagnosed by a transurethral resection (TURP) in the UK and managed conservatively. Findings The cell cycle progression signature was a highly significant predictor of outcome in both cohorts. After prostatectomy the CCP score predicted biochemical recurrence in univariate (Hazard ratio (HR) for a one unit change in CCP (doubling) = 1.89; 95% CI (1.54, 2.31) χ2 = 34·0, 1df, p = 5·6 × 10−9) and multivariate analysis (HR = 1.74; 95% CI (1.39, 2.17) χ2 = 21·65, 1df, p = 3·3 ×10−6). The CCP score and PSA were the dominant variables in the best predictive model and were much more significant than any other clinical measure. In the TURP cohort, the CCP score was the dominant variable for predicting death from prostate cancer in both univariate (HR= 2.92; 95% CI (2.38, 3.57) χ2 = 92·7, 1df, p = 6.1 × 10−22) and multivariate analyses (χ2 = 42·2, p = 8·2 × 10−11), where it was much stronger than all other prognostic factors. In no case 4 was there significant evidence for heterogeneity in the hazard ratio for the CCP score across any clinical parameter. Interpretation The CCP score provides a substantial amount of independent information about the risk of recurrence after radical prostatectomy and the risk of death in conservatively managed prostate cancer diagnosed by TURP. Taken together, these studies provide strong evidence that the CCP score is a highly robust prognostic marker which, after additional validation, could have a central role in determining appropriate treatment for prostate cancer patients. Funding Study funded by Cancer Research UK, the Orchid Appeal, US National Institutes of Health (SPORE CA92629), and the Koch Foundation. Molecular testing performed at Myriad Genetics.

New predictive markers for managing prostate cancer are urgently required because of the highly variable natural history of this disease. At the time of diagnosis, Gleason score provides the gold standard for assessing the aggressiveness of prostate cancer. However, the recent discovery of TMPRSS2 fusions to the ERG gene in prostate cancer raises the possibility of using alterations at the ERG locus as additional mechanism-based prognostic indicators. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) assays were used to assess ERG gene status in a cohort of 445 prostate cancers from patients who had been conservatively managed. The FISH assays detected separation of 5 0 (labelled green) and 3 0 (labelled red) ERG sequences, which is a consequence of the TMPRSS2-ERG fusion, and additionally identify interstitial deletion of genomic sequences between the tandemly located TMPRSS2 and ERG gene sequences on chromosome 21. Cancers lacking ERG alterations exhibited favourable cause-specific survival (90% survival at 8 years). We identify a novel category of prostate cancers, characterized by duplication of the fusion of TMPRSS2 to ERG sequences together with interstitial deletion of sequences 5 0 to ERG (called '2 þ Edel'), which by comparison exhibited extremely poor cause-specific survival (hazard ratio ¼ 6.10, 95% confidence ratio ¼ 3.33-11.15, Po0.001, 25% survival at 8 years). In multivariate analysis, '2 þ Edel' provided significant prognostic information (P ¼ 0.003) in addition to that provided by Gleason score and prostate-specific antigen level at diagnosis. Other individual categories of ERG alteration were associated with intermediate or good prognosis. We conclude that determination of ERG gene status, including duplication of the fusion of TMPRSS2 to ERG sequences in 2 þ Edel, allows stratification of prostate cancer into distinct survival categories.

Background:The natural history of prostate cancer is highly variable and it is difficult to predict. We showed previously that a cell cycle progression (CCP) score was a robust predictor of outcome in a conservatively managed cohort diagnosed by transurethral resection of the prostate. A greater need is to predict outcome in patients diagnosed by needle biopsy.Methods:Total RNA was extracted from paraffin specimens. A CCP score was calculated from expression levels of 31 genes. Clinical variables consisted of centrally re-reviewed Gleason score, baseline prostate-specific antigen level, age, clinical stage, and extent of disease. The primary endpoint was death from prostate cancer.Results:In univariate analysis (n=349), the hazard ratio (HR) for death from prostate cancer was 2.02 (95% CI (1.62, 2.53), P<10−9) for a one-unit increase in CCP score. The CCP score was only weakly correlated with standard prognostic factors and in a multivariate analysis, CCP score dominated (HR for one-unit increase=1.65, 95% CI (1.31, 2.09), P=3 × 10−5), with Gleason score (P=5 × 10−4) and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) (P=0.017) providing significant additional contributions.Conclusion:For conservatively managed patients, the CCP score is the strongest independent predictor of cancer death outcome yet described and may prove valuable in managing clinically localised prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: The discovery of ERG/ETV1 gene rearrangements and PTEN gene loss warrants investigation in a mechanism-based prognostic classification of prostate cancer (PCa). The study objective was to evaluate the potential clinical significance and natural history of different disease categories by combining ERG/ETV1 gene rearrangements and PTEN gene loss status. METHODS: We utilised fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) assays to detect PTEN gene loss and ERG/ETV1 gene rearrangements in 308 conservatively managed PCa patients with survival outcome data. RESULTS: ERG/ETV1 gene rearrangements alone and PTEN gene loss alone both failed to show a link to survival in multivariate analyses. However, there was a strong interaction between ERG/ETV1 gene rearrangements and PTEN gene loss (Po0.001). The largest subgroup of patients (54%), lacking both PTEN gene loss and ERG/ETV1 gene rearrangements comprised a 'good prognosis' population exhibiting favourable cancer-specific survival (85.5% alive at 11 years). The presence of PTEN gene loss in the absence of ERG/ETV1 gene rearrangements identified a patient population (6%) with poorer cancer-specific survival that was highly significant (HR ¼ 4.87, Po0.001 in multivariate analysis, 13.7% survival at 11 years) when compared with the 'good prognosis' group. ERG/ETV1 gene rearrangements and PTEN gene loss status should now prospectively be incorporated into a predictive model to establish whether predictive performance is improved. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that FISH studies of PTEN gene loss and ERG/ETV1 gene rearrangements could be pursued for patient stratification, selection and hypothesis-generating subgroup analyses in future PCa clinical trials and potentially in patient management.