This paper seeks to identify whether there is a representative empirical Okun's law coefficient (OLC) and to measure its size. We carry out a meta‐regression analysis on a sample of 269 estimates of the OLC to uncover reasons for differences in empirical results and to estimate the ‘true’ OLC. On statistical (and other) grounds, we find it appropriate to investigate two separate subsamples, using respectively (some measure of) unemployment or output as dependent variable. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, there is evidence of type II publication bias in both subsamples, but a type I bias is present only among the papers using some measure of unemployment as the dependent variable. Second, after correction for publication bias, authentic and statistically significant OLC effects are present in both subsamples. Third, bias‐corrected estimated true OLCs are significantly lower (in absolute value) with models using some measure of unemployment as the dependent variable. Using a bivariate MRA approach, the estimated true effects are −0.25 for the unemployment subsample and −0.61 for the output subsample; with a multivariate MRA methodology, the estimated true effects are −0.40 and −1.02 for the unemployment and the output subsamples respectively.

The Hartz reforms were designed to make the German labor market more flexible in order to reverse the increasing trend of unemployment. This paper employs unobserved components models in order to distinguish permanent from transitory movements in the German unemployment rate. Our results show that the permanent component of the German unemployment was reduced in the range of 1.1 and 2.6 percentage points after the Hartz reforms.J.E.L: C32, E32

International audienceCet article décompose les fluctuations du PIB réel et du taux de chômage entre chocs permanents et transitoires en Europe. Nous estimons un modèle à composantes inobservées à deux variables sur quatre grands pays européens (Allemagne, France, Italie et Royaume-Uni) avec des données trimestrielles depuis 1970. Le modèle autorise une corrélation entre les différents chocs transitoires et permanents ainsi que des changements structurels dans la spécification de la composante permanente du PIB réel et du chômage. Les résultats de cette étude indiquent que les mouvements du PIB réel et du chômage sont dominés par des chocs de nature permanente plutôt que transitoires. Inversement, les fluctuations macroéconomiques en Allemagne présentent un caractère transitoire et persistant

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