The TCP caused a marked decline in the number of clinical cases, probably because animals in which clinical disease was imminent were detected by testing and removed. A reduction in prevalence of reactors occurred only when most herd members were born after the TCP started. The sensitivity of the ELISA appears to be low based on the large number of reactors that were negative at T1 but were positive at later tests. Low sensitivity of diagnostic tests and the long incubation period of the disease limits meaningful analysis of the program until it has continued for some years. Measures adopted in the TCP have not broken the cycle of infection in many participating herds. It is unsure if this was because of poor compliance with control recommendations or a poor understanding of methods of transmission by scientists. Eradication is not feasible in the short-term.

The TCP was associated with a marked decline in clinical cases. The similar age distributions of clinical cases and reactors probably meant that testing detected animals for which clinical disease was imminent. Whether the measures used in the TCP were adequate to control the disease in beef herds could not be determined because of the long incubation period of the disease. The relatively high proportion of the reactors investigated that were confirmed as infected provided confidence that the test was continuing to operate at a high specificity. If all unconfirmed reactors were presumed to be uninfected, the minimum specificity of the ELISA was 99.83%. The sensitivity of the ELISA appeared to be very low because of the large number of reactors that were negative at T1 but positive at later tests.