AbstractObjectiveTo determine the diagnostic accuracy of serological tests for coronavirus disease-2019 (covid-19).DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis.Data sourcesMedline, bioRxiv, and medRxiv from 1 January to 30 April 2020, using subject headings or subheadings combined with text words for the concepts of covid-19 and serological tests for covid-19.Eligibility criteria and data analysisEligible studies measured sensitivity or specificity, or both of a covid-19 serological test compared with a reference standard of viral culture or reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Studies were excluded with fewer than five participants or samples. Risk of bias was assessed using quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies 2 (QUADAS-2). Pooled sensitivity and specificity were estimated using random effects bivariate meta-analyses.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome was overall sensitivity and specificity, stratified by method of serological testing (enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs), lateral flow immunoassays (LFIAs), or chemiluminescent immunoassays (CLIAs)) and immunoglobulin class (IgG, IgM, or both). Secondary outcomes were stratum specific sensitivity and specificity within subgroups defined by study or participant characteristics, including time since symptom onset.Results5016 references were identified and 40 studies included. 49 risk of bias assessments were carried out (one for each population and method evaluated). High risk of patient selection bias was found in 98% (48/49) of assessments and high or unclear risk of bias from performance or interpretation of the serological test in 73% (36/49). Only 10% (4/40) of studies included outpatients. Only two studies evaluated tests at the point of care. For each method of testing, pooled sensitivity and specificity were not associated with the immunoglobulin class measured. The pooled sensitivity of ELISAs measuring IgG or IgM was 84.3% (95% confidence interval 75.6% to 90.9%), of LFIAs was 66.0% (49.3% to 79.3%), and of CLIAs was 97.8% (46.2% to 100%). In all analyses, pooled sensitivity was lower for LFIAs, the potential point-of-care method. Pooled specificities ranged from 96.6% to 99.7%. Of the samples used for estimating specificity, 83% (10 465/12 547) were from populations tested before the epidemic or not suspected of having covid-19. Among LFIAs, pooled sensitivity of commercial kits (65.0%, 49.0% to 78.2%) was lower than that of non-commercial tests (88.2%, 83.6% to 91.3%). Heterogeneity was seen in all analyses. Sensitivity was higher at least three weeks after symptom onset (ranging from 69.9% to 98.9%) compared with within the first week (from 13.4% to 50.3%).ConclusionHigher quality clinical studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of serological tests for covid-19 are urgently needed. Currently, available evidence does not support the continued use of existing point-of-care serological tests.Study registrationPROSPERO CRD42020179452.

Background Deep learning-based radiological image analysis could facilitate use of chest x-rays as triage tests for pulmonary tuberculosis in resource-limited settings. We sought to determine whether commercially available chest x-ray analysis software meet WHO recommendations for minimal sensitivity and specificity as pulmonary tuberculosis triage tests. MethodsWe recruited symptomatic adults at the Indus Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan. We compared two software, qXR version 2.0 (qXRv2) and CAD4TB version 6.0 (CAD4TBv6), with a reference of mycobacterial culture of two sputa. We assessed qXRv2 using its manufacturer prespecified threshold score for chest x-ray classification as tuberculosis present versus not present. For CAD4TBv6, we used a data-derived threshold, because it does not have a prespecified one. We tested for non-inferiority to preset WHO recommendations (0•90 for sensitivity, 0•70 for specificity) using a non-inferiority limit of 0•05. We identified factors associated with accuracy by stratification and logistic regression. Findings We included 2198 (92•7%) of 2370 enrolled participants. 2187 (99•5%) of 2198 were HIV-negative, and 272 (12•4%) had culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. For both software, accuracy was non-inferior to WHO-recommended minimum values (qXRv2 sensitivity 0•93 [95% CI 0•89-0•95], non-inferiority p=0•0002; CAD4TBv6 sensitivity 0•93 [0•90-0•96], p<0•0001; qXRv2 specificity 0•75 [0•73-0•77], p<0•0001; CAD4TBv6 specificity 0•69 [0•67-0•71], p=0•0003). Sensitivity was lower in smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis for both software, and in women for CAD4TBv6. Specificity was lower in men and in those with previous tuberculosis, and reduced with increasing age and decreasing body mass index. Smoking and diabetes did not affect accuracy.Interpretation In an HIV-negative population, these software met WHO-recommended minimal accuracy for pulmonary tuberculosis triage tests. Sensitivity will be lower when smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis is more prevalent.

Background Automated radiologic analysis using computer-aided detection software (CAD) could facilitate chest X-ray (CXR) use in tuberculosis diagnosis. There is little to no evidence on the accuracy of commercially-available deep learning-based CAD in different populations, including patients with smear-negative tuberculosis and people living with HIV (PLWH). Methods We collected CXRs and individual patient data (IPD) from studies evaluating CAD in patients self-referring for tuberculosis symptoms with culture or nucleic acid amplification testing as the reference. We re-analyzed CXRs with three CAD (CAD4TB version (v) 6, Lunit v3.1.0.0, and qXR v2). We estimated sensitivity and specificity within each study and pooled using IPD meta-analysis. We used multivariable meta-regression to identify characteristics modifying accuracy. Results We included CXRs and IPD of 3727/3967 participants from 4/7 eligible studies. 17% (621/3727) were PLWH. 17% (645/3727) had microbiologically-confirmed tuberculosis. Despite using the same threshold score for classifying CXR in every study, sensitivity and specificity varied from study to study. The software had similar unadjusted accuracy (at 90% pooled sensitivity, pooled specificities were: CAD4TBv6, 56.9% [95%CI:51.7-61.9]; Lunit, 54.1% [44.6-63.3]; qXRv2, 60.5% [51.7-68.6]). Adjusted absolute differences in pooled sensitivity between PLWH and HIV-uninfected participants was: CAD4TBv6, -13.4% [-21.1, -6.9]; Lunit, +2.2% [-3.6, +6.3]; qXRv2: -13.4% [-21.5, -6.6]); between smear-negative and smear-positive tuberculosis was: CAD4TBv6, -12.3% [-19.5, -6.1]; Lunit, -17.2% [-24.6, -10.5]; qXRv2, -16.6% [-24.4, -9.9]. Accuracy was similar to human readers. Conclusions For CAD CXR analysis to be implemented as a high-sensitivity tuberculosis rule-out test, users will need threshold scores identified from their own patient populations, and stratified by HIV- and smear-status.

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