Guangxi, a province in southwestern China, has the second highest reported number of HIV/AIDS cases in China. This study aimed to develop an accurate and effective model to describe the tendency of HIV and to predict its incidence in Guangxi. HIV incidence data of Guangxi from 2005 to 2016 were obtained from the database of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, generalised regression neural network (GRNN) models and exponential smoothing (ES) were used to fit the incidence data. Data from 2015 and 2016 were used to validate the most suitable models. The model performances were evaluated by evaluating metrics, including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. The LSTM model had the lowest MSE when the N value (time step) was 12. The most appropriate ARIMA models for incidence in 2015 and 2016 were ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 2)12 and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) (1, 1, 2)12, respectively. The accuracy of GRNN and ES models in forecasting HIV incidence in Guangxi was relatively poor. Four performance metrics of the LSTM model were all lower than the ARIMA, GRNN and ES models. The LSTM model was more effective than other time-series models and is important for the monitoring and control of local HIV epidemics.

Little is known about how Talaromyces marneffei , a thermally dimorphic fungus that causes substantial morbidity and mortality in Southeast Asia, evades the human immune system. Polarization of macrophages into fungal-inhibiting M1-like and fungal-promoting M2-like types has been shown to play an important role in the innate immune response against fungal pathogens. This mechanism has not been defined for T. marneffei . Here, we demonstrated that T. marneffei promotes its survival in human macrophages by inducing them toward M2-like polarization. Our investigations of the mechanism revealed that T. marneffei infection led to SOCS3 protein degradation by inducing tyrosine phosphorylation, thereby relieving the inhibitory effect of SOCS3 on p-STAT6, a key factor for M2-like polarization. Our SOCS3-overexpression experiments showed that SOCS3 is a positive regulator of M1-like polarization and plays an important role in limiting M2-like polarization. Furthermore, we found that inhibition of the TLR9 pathway partially blocked T. marneffei -induced M2-like polarization and significantly enhanced the killing activity of macrophages against T. marneffei . Collectively, these results reveal a novel mechanism by which T. marneffei evades the immune response of human macrophages.

Background Competitive endogenous RNA (ceRNA) reveals new mechanisms for interactions between RNAs, which have been considered to play a significant role in pathogen-host innate immune response. However, knowledge of ceRNA regulatory networks in Talaromyces marneffei (TM)-macrophages is still limited. Methods Next-generation sequencing technology (NGS) was used to obtain mRNA, miRNA and lncRNA expression profiles in TM-infected macrophages. The R package DESeq2 was used to identify differentially expressed lncRNA, miRNA and mRNA. The R package GOseq was used for Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analysis, and the ceRNA network of lncRNA–miRNA–mRNA interaction was constructed in Cytoscape. Similarly, functional enrichment analysis on mRNA in the ceRNA network. Finally, two mRNAs and four lncRNAs in the ceRNA network were randomly selected to verify the expression using qRT-PCR. Results In total, 119 lncRNAs, 28 miRNAs and 208 mRNAs were identified as differentially expressed RNAs in TM-infected macrophages. The constructed ceRNA network contains 38 lncRNAs, 10 miRNAs and 45 mRNAs. GO and KEGG analysis of mRNA in the ceRNA network indicated that activated pathways in TM-infected macrophages were related to immunity, inflammation and metabolism. The quantitative validation of the expression of four randomly selected differentially expressed lncRNAs, AC006252.1, AC090197.1, IL6R-AS1, LINC02009 and two mRNAs, CSF1, NR4A3 showed that the expression levels were consistent with those in the RNA-sequencing. Conclusions The ceRNA network related to immunity, inflammation and metabolism plays an important role in TM-macrophage interaction. This study may provide effective and novel insights for further understanding the underlying mechanism of TM infection.

As acute infectious pneumonia, the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) has created unique challenges for each nation and region. Both India and the United States (US) have experienced a second outbreak, resulting in a severe disease burden. The study aimed to develop optimal models to predict the daily new cases, in order to help to develop public health strategies. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, generalised regression neural network (GRNN) models, ARIMA–GRNN hybrid model and exponential smoothing (ES) model were used to fit the daily new cases. The performances were evaluated by minimum mean absolute per cent error (MAPE). The predictive value with ARIMA (3, 1, 3) (1, 1, 1)14 model was closest to the actual value in India, while the ARIMA–GRNN presented a better performance in the US. According to the models, the number of daily new COVID-19 cases in India continued to decrease after 27 May 2021. In conclusion, the ARIMA model presented to be the best-fit model in forecasting daily COVID-19 new cases in India, and the ARIMA–GRNN hybrid model had the best prediction performance in the US. The appropriate model should be selected for different regions in predicting daily new cases. The results can shed light on understanding the trends of the outbreak and giving ideas of the epidemiological stage of these regions.

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