STUDY QUESTION Does trophectoderm (TE) quality affect birthweight after single frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer? SUMMARY ANSWER Transfer of single blastocyst with advanced TE quality was associated with higher birthweight and increased risk of a large for gestational age (LGA) baby. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Transfer of blastocysts with advanced TE quality results in higher ongoing pregnancy rates and a lower miscarriage risk. However, data on the relationship between TE quality and birthweight are still lacking. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This retrospective cohort study at a tertiary-care academic medical center included 1548 singleton babies born from single frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer from January 2011 to June 2019. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Babies were grouped into four groups according to embryo expansion (Stages 3, 4, 5 and 6), three groups according to inner cell mass (ICM) quality (A, B and C), and three groups according to TE quality (A, B and C). Main outcomes included absolute birthweight, Z-scores adjusted for gestational age and gender, and adverse neonatal outcomes. Multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association of neonatal outcomes with expansion stage, ICM quality and TE quality. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE As TE quality decreased, birthweight (3468.10 ± 471.52, 3357.69 ± 522.06, and 3288.79 ± 501.90 for A, B and C, respectively, P = 0.002), Z-scores (0.59 ± 1.07, 0.42 ± 1.04, and 0.27 ± 1.06 for A, B and C, respectively, P = 0.002) and incidence of LGA (28.9%, 19.7% and 17.4% for A, B and C, respectively, P = 0.027) decreased correspondingly. After adjusting for confounders, compared with the Grade A group, blastocysts with TE Grade B (standardized coefficients (β): −127.97 g, 95% CI: −234.46 to −21.47, P = 0.019) and blastocysts with TE grade C (β: −200.27 g, 95% CI: −320.69 to −79.86, P = 0.001) resulted in offspring with lower birthweight. Blastocysts with TE grade C brought babies with lower Z-scores than TE Grade A (β: −0.35, 95% CI: −0.59 to −0.10, P = 0.005). Also, embryos with TE Grade B (adjusted odds ratio (aOR):0.91, 95% CI: 0.84 to 0.99, P = 0.033) and embryos with TE Grade C (aOR : 0.89, 95% CI: 0.81 to 0.98, P = 0.016) had lower chance of leading to a LGA baby than those with TE Grade A. No association between neonatal outcomes with embryo expansion stage and ICM was observed (all P > 0.05). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The retrospective design, lack of controlling for several unknown confounders, and inter-observer variation limited this study. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The study extends our knowledge of the down-stream effect of TE quality on newborn birthweight and the risk of LGA. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This study was funded by National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC1003000), National Natural Science Foundation of China (81771533 to Y.P.K. and 31200825 to L.S.) and Innovative Research Team of High-level Local Universities in Shanghai (SSMU-ZLCX20180401), Shanghai Sailing Program(21YF1423200) and the Fundamental research program funding of Ninth People's Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong university School of Medicine (JYZZ117). The authors declare no conflict of interest in this present study. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER N/A
We propose a test-based elastic integrative analysis of the randomised trial and real-world data to estimate treatment effect heterogeneity with a vector of known effect modifiers. When the real-world data are not subject to bias, our approach combines the trial and real-world data for efficient estimation. Utilising the trial design, we construct a test to decide whether or not to use real-world data. We characterise the asymptotic distribution of the test-based estimator under local alternatives. We provide a data-adaptive procedure to select the test threshold that promises the smallest mean square error and an elastic confidence interval with a good finite-sample coverage property.
This paper studies tail risk connectedness and systemic risk in the Chinese financial market in the post-crisis period of 2009-2017. We adopt the conditional value at risk (CoVaR) and complex theory to construct the tail risk connectedness network and identify the systemically important financial institutions during the Chinese financial turbulence. We precisely characterize the dynamic evolution of the tail risk connectedness at the institutional, sector and market levels. We find that, during normal times, the banking sector contributes the most tail risk to the market and that the real estate sector contributes the least. However, during the crisis period, the real estate sector played its role and became the most significant tail risk emitter. In addition, we identify the significant important financial institutions in the Chinese financial market, highlighting the fact that the four state-owned commercial banks and two largest insurance companies dominate. Our results are helpful to both regulators for developing macroprudential supervision policies and investors interested in the Chinese financial market for making risk management strategies.
Calibration weighting has been widely used to correct selection biases in non-probability sampling, missing data and causal inference. The main idea is to calibrate the biased sample to the benchmark by adjusting the subject weights. However, hard calibration can produce enormous weights when an exact calibration is enforced on a large set of extraneous covariates. This article proposes a soft calibration scheme, where the outcome and the selection indicator follow mixed-effects models. The scheme imposes an exact calibration on the fixed effects and an approximate calibration on the random effects. On the one hand, our soft calibration has an intrinsic connection with best linear unbiased prediction, which results in a more efficient estimation compared to hard calibration. On the other hand, soft calibration weighting estimation can be envisioned as penalized propensity score weight estimation, with the penalty term motivated by the mixed-effects structure. The asymptotic distribution and a valid variance estimator are derived for soft calibration. We demonstrate the superiority of the proposed estimator over other competitors in simulation studies and a real-data application.
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