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This area has a high rate of chronicity in HCV infection due to plasma donation. Twenty-five years after virus infection, liver cirrhosis or HCC developed in one-tenth of patients, with an overall mortality of 8.18%.

Early prediction of spontaneous hepatitis B virus e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion is pivotal in the prevention of unnecessary drug prescription, corresponding financial burden, and adverse reactions. One hundred and thirteen chronic hepatitis B patients with HBeAg-positive in the immune active phase were followed up for about 1.5 years. Patients were classified into two groups: spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion group (group A, n = 18) and non-spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion group. Among the non-spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion group, 35 patients were selected as controls (group B, n = 35). At week 12, there was a significant difference in hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) levels between the two groups (group A 4.32 ± 1.05 log kU/ml, and group B 5.16 ± 0.53 log kU/ml, P = 0.004), and this significance magnified at week 28. Only two variables, HBcrAg level and the reduction in the HBcrAg levels (ΔHBcrAg) at week 28 were enrolled, with the odds ratio of 4.19 and 0.21, respectively. The optimal cutoffs of HBcrAg levels and the ΔHBcrAg at week 28 were 4.90 and 2.00 log kU/ml, respectively. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of HBcrAg levels at week 28 were 73.9% and 96.7%, respectively. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the ΔHBcrAg at week 28 were 76.2% and 93.8%, respectively. The measurement of HBcrAg is useful for monitoring the natural course of chronic hepatitis B virus infection. The dynamics of HBcrAg levels could accurately predict the spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion. J. Med. Virol. 89:463-468, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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Spontaneous hepatitis B virus (HBV) e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion is associated with reduced risk of liver-related complications, but is poorly understood. In this study, 113 chronic hepatitis B patients in the immune active HBeAg-positive phase were followed up for 76 weeks. Based on the outcome of liver function, HBeAg, hepatitis B viral e antibody (anti-HBe) and HBV DNA at week 76, 18 patients were classified as spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion group (group A) and 95 patients were classified as non-spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion group (group B). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, only week 28 HBV DNA levels were used for the logistic regression equation, and the odds ratio was 0.505 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.366-0.697). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for HBV DNA and HBeAg levels at week 28 were 0.824 (P < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.720-0.927) and 0.832 (P < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.744-0.921), respectively. Based on the maximization of Youden's index, the optimal cutoff values of HBV DNA and HBeAg levels at week 28 were 3.84 log10 IU/ml and 1.53 log10 PEI-U/ml, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of HBV DNA levels at week 28 were 50.0%, 97.9%, 81.8%, and 91.2%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of HBeAg levels at week 28 were 94.4%, 60.0%, 30.9%, and 98.3%, respectively. In conclusion, the dynamic monitoring of HBV DNA and HBeAg levels predicted accurately determines spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion over the duration of 1 year.