Hundreds of predictions about the duration of the pandemic and the number of infected and dead have been carried out using traditional epidemiological tools (i.e. SIR, SIRD models, etc.) or new procedures of big-data analysis. However, the extraordinary complexity of the disease and the lack of knowledge about the pandemic (i.e. R value, mortality rate, etc.) create uncertainty about the accuracy of these estimates. However, several elegant mathematical approaches, based on physics and probability principles, like the Delta-t argument, Lindy's Law or the Doomsday principle-Carter's catastrophe, which have been successfully applied by scientists to unravel complex phenomena characterized by their great uncertainty (i.e. Human race's longevity; How many more humans will be born before extinction) allow predicting parameters of the Covid-19 pandemic. These models predict that the COVID-19 pandemic will hit us until at least September-October 2021, but will likely last until January-September 2022, causing a minimum of 36,000,000 infected and most likely 60,000,000, as well as 1,400,000 dead at best and most likely 2,333,000.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.