SUMMARY The incidence of Crohn's disease in Cardiff between 1931 and 1985 has been examined using hospital diagnostic indices supplemented in recent years by records from clinicians, and the departments of pathology and radiology. Four hundred and seven new patients were confirmed after all notes had been reviewed. There has been a large increase from 0-18 cases/105 of the population per year in the 1930s to current values of 8.3/1051/year. The incidence continues to rise and shows an increasing proportion of patients with colorectal disease. Peak age specific incidences occur in the third and eighth decades of life.

BackgroundThe incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is rising and is likely to continue to do so for the foreseeable future, with the fastest growth seen among adults ≥75 years of age. Elderly patients with advanced CKD are likely to have a higher burden of comorbidity and frailty, both of which may influence their disease outcome. For these patients, treatment decisions can be complex, with the current lack of robust prognostic tools hindering the shared decision-making process. The current study aims to assess the impact of comorbidity and frailty on the outcomes of patients referred for pre-dialysis education.MethodsWe performed a single-centre study of patients (n = 283) referred for pre-dialysis education between 2010 and 2012. The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) were used to assess comorbid disease burden and frailty, respectively. Follow-up data were collected until February 2015.ResultsThe CCI and CFS scores at the time of referral to the pre-dialysis service were independent predictors of mortality. Within the study follow-up period, 76% of patients with a high CFS score at the time of pre-dialysis education had died, with 63% of these patients not commencing dialysis before death.ConclusionA relatively simple frailty scale and comorbidity score could be used to predict survival and better inform the shared decision-making process for patients with advanced kidney disease.

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A lack of data on patient choices and outcomes at the time of pre-dialysis planning limits meaningful shared decision making, particularly in older frailer patients. In this large retrospective cohort study of patients aged over 70 seen by the pre-dialysis clinic (2004-2016) of a large single centre in the United Kingdom (1,216 patients), age, sex, comorbidity, poverty and frailty were used to predict choice of renal replacement therapy (RRT) over maximum conservative management (MCM). The impact of patient choice of RRT versus MCM was used to predict survival from the time of choice using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Older age, female sex, greater poverty and greater frailty were associated with choosing MCM, whilst comorbidity had no significant impact on choice. At 5 years of follow up, 49% of all patients had died without receiving RRT. Over 70% of the patients choosing MCM died with better kidney function than the median level at which those starting RRT initiated treatment. Frailty and age were better predictors of survival than comorbidity and in patients with at least moderate frailty, RRT offered no survival benefit over MCM. In conclusion, analysing outcomes from the time of choice may improve shared decision making. Frailty should be routinely assessed and collected and further work may help predict which patients are unlikely to survive or progress to end stage renal disease and may not need to be burdened with making a pre-dialysis choice.

BackgroundWe examined the prevalence of acute kidney injury (AKI) risk factors in the emergency medical unit, generated a modified risk assessment tool and tested its ability to predict AKI.MethodsA total of 1196 patients admitted to medical admission units were assessed for patient-associated AKI risk factors. Subsequently, 898 patients were assessed for a limited number of fixed risk factors with the addition of hypotension and sepsis. This was correlated to AKI episodes.ResultsIn the first cohort, the prevalence of AKI risk factors was 2.1 ± 2.0 per patient, with a positive relationship between age and the number of risk factors and a higher number of risk factors in patients ≥65 years. In the second cohort, 12.3% presented with or developed AKI. Patients with AKI were older and had a higher number of AKI risk factors. In the AKI cohort, 72% of the patients had two or more AKI risk factors compared with 43% of the cohort with no AKI. When age ≥65 years was added as an independent risk factor, 84% of those with AKI had two or more AKI risk factors compared with 55% of those with no AKI. Receiver operating characteristic analysis suggests that the use of common patient-associated known AKI risk factors performs no better than age alone as a predictor of AKI.ConclusionsDetailed assessment of well-established patient-associated AKI risk factors may not facilitate clinicians to apportion risk. This suggests that additional work is required to develop a more sensitive validated AKI-predictive tool that would be useful in this clinical setting.